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venture companies are often accused now of solving First
World Problems (how can I get my specialty coffee made
as
I walk into the Starbux and have it already be charged to
my account).
Well, as the HB, let's be honest -- non-withstanding the
occasional geothermal rocket launch -- eh, what?
-- we
appear to have devolved into short term idiotic
predictions, and old debates.
As I was having one just a bit earlier today, I reminded
myself that I've been on here about 14 years, in which, I
might add, a considerable number of my ideas actually
did
get baked, nice.
But we don't try to predict the really hard stuff. Ten
years
out, we're getting "real-close" to some singularity
predictions, and the precursors to some really big
changes,
in tech and in politics appear to be in front of our noses.
I'll make the first, bold one:
The HB will be here to check up on this, and let's hope
all
of us reading this today, including yours truly, are also
going to be there to check how well we did.
Baker's Score idea
Baker_27s_20Score
Inspired by this post. [doctorremulac3, Mar 22 2018]
Indirect Crowd Funding for Meteor Defense Systems
Indirect_20Crowd_20...20Defense_20Systems
Inspired by [hippo] [Skewed, Mar 23 2018]
Plastic-Munching Microbeageddon
https://news.stanfo...lastics-092915.html
They'll have to take it one substance at a time - but they outnumber us. [Wrongfellow, Mar 23 2018]
Yexil
http://gammaworld.wikia.com/wiki/Yexil
One of Gamma Worlds monsters from the original box set. [Skewed, Mar 24 2018]
Oil munching bacteria
https://www.scienti...ean-bp-s-oil-spill/
Used to help clear up oil spills. [Skewed, Mar 24 2018]
Oil munching bacteria
https://en.wikipedi...a_Mohan_Chakrabarty
New strains being developed as early as 1971 [Skewed, Mar 24 2018]
Mindey's Wiki
https://wiki.mindey...ngsSchoolsJobs.html
No buildings, no schools, no jobs... [Inyuki, Mar 28 2018]
Prediction # 1
https://www.cnbc.co...l-tests-report.html
Just announced a step moving towards this. [doctorremulac3, Mar 29 2018]
Is LaMDA Sentient? — an Interview
https://cajundiscor...erview-ea64d916d917
[Voice, Jun 15 2022]
[link]
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Starbucks? Who in their right mind ever goes into any of the
outlets of this vile chain with their pathetic "grande's" and
"talls"? No one wants to be seen dead in a Starbucks. |
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The part about you having had several of your ideas baked
gives me an idea. How about a category to post those? |
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all for that -- who judges? |
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k, that fits the earnest requirement :) |
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In 2028, four years after The Disaster, small, isolated
communities of survivors around the world have
managed to put together a primitive internet
infrastructure based on a ham radio transport layer.
The Halfbakery is one of the few surviving internet
servers and, for many communities, their only
communication with others is through annotations to
Halfbakery ideas (always using halfbakery.com/lr/
because of bandwidth limitations). |
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that would work well for one of those debate ideas |
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Excellent idea, [their]. Here're my predictions: |
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(1) Artificial intelligence will be commonplace, but we won't think of it as artificial intelligence.
Instead, we will continue to re-define intelligence so that it remains "anything a machine can't do",
just as we already have for chess and facial recognition. |
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(2) A mouse will live to be a healthy six years old, tripling its natural lifespan. Realising that they
have the possibility of not dying, people will step out of denial and start pushing aggressively for
massive human life extension. |
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(3) The population size, having peaked in 2024, will slowly start to decline. It will level off from
2038 to 2100 as human expectancy increases twofold, then start to creep downwards again. |
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(4) Anthropogenic climate change will have been recognised as a collective delusion. |
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(5) There will have been at least several deaths caused by biohackers, mostly to themselves. |
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(6) The 5-year survival rate for 95% of cancer types will be above 75%. |
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(7) We will have found living bacterial life deep undergound on Mars but, disappointingly, it will be
found to share a common ancestor with Earth life. |
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(8) Alzheimer's Disease will be controllable in people who have already started to develop it, and
largely preventable in children born in or after 2018. |
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(9) We will still not have any evidence of extraterrestrial life, apart from on Mars. |
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(10) The first adult mammal will have been successfully frozen and revived in apparent good health. |
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Artificial intelligence was top of my list is too My guess is
we definitely
have conversational Turing beater by then for sure, but
yes, no
widespread grant citizenship movement or anything like
that. |
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Exciting to have someone with your background so
optimistic on biomed.
I'm doubtful that we'll have enough evidence on climate
by 2028. Though I'm glad the penguins and polar bears
are safe. |
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Curious you've made no statements on energy. Surely
there must be a
fusion reactor nearby just about to achieve breakeven? :) |
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//optimistic on biomed// Well, we're well on the way with cancer;
haven't yet got a real handle on Alzheimer's but when we do it'll be
simple; and there are developments in the pipeline now that'll give us
a six-year-old mouse. The rest was arm-waving, but I have
certificate that says I'm allowed to wave arms. |
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Energy - we'll have slightly better solar and less panic about fossil
fuels and a few more fission reactors. Climate change - it'll fizzle
precisely because of the lack of evidence: people will just think "oh
yeah, everybody worried about that back in the 'teens." |
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Here are a few to go on record: |
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1. Putin will no longer be President of Russia |
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2. Xi will no longer be President of China. |
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3. The US will have had (or will have at the time) a female President. |
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4. Bitcoin will not go to zero. |
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5. A blockchain enabled application will be the basis of at least one household name tech giant with a market cap above 100 B in 2018 dollars. |
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6. Sports betting and online gambling will be legal throughout the US |
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I'll add more after some consideration |
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// Surely there must be a fusion reactor nearby just about to achieve breakeven? // |
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<peers down Jeffries tube/> |
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Not at this exact moment, but we can turn it on if you want to see it going. |
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If you can wait a bit while we boil a kettle, we can get the 1:12 scale steam traction engine going too. That's great fun. |
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Or you can go down the corridor and look at one of our forced quantum singulary direct-mass converters, but there's not really a lot to see. |
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//The HB will be here to check up on this//
It might be, but then again, my prediction is that the internet, as we know it, will have become an increasing irrelevance. Non-commercial sites will become almost non-existent (farewell Wikipedia, farewell most of the blogosphere) as the consequences of ending net neutrality work themselves out. |
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AI will take care of that. |
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Yes, but if you extrapolate forward even a couple of
decades, storage becomes so cheap that the entire web
becomes one vast Wayback Machine, where everything is
archived every second. |
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And then when we change technologies, someone will think
"Oh, wait, there's six quintillion yottabytes of web history
here - I'll just pop a copy on my iPhone." |
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AI will take care of that too. |
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//AI will take care of that too.// |
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I just spoke to Allen and he says do your own chores [2 Fries]. |
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The North and South poles will have flipped. |
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There will be an accident between a driverless sleep
bus
and a driverless delivery van, requiring a bunch of
temp
drivers to step in and take the wheels while the
technology court software lawyers battle out whose
code is
at fault. Software lawyers who can work through
code and
apply law will be in demand as an occupation. |
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North Korean trinkets will flood the markets in many
countries but be found to lack consistent quality.
The
Chinese will be battling terrorism internally from
economic
and demographic pressures. |
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The Far East Trade War will rearrange the map a
little. The US will be caught in the middle with its
pants down. |
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Plastic will be hard to come by, with expenses driven
up by
sustainability issues with oil sourcing problems in
the
Arctic, banned chemicals, and regulatory oversight. |
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The Water War will be fought between Israel and
Jordan
and some other players, mostly by private
companies using
mercenaries. |
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Beef will be seen as a luxury item in places where it
was
once common. Food prices will be high but bug
harvests
will reduce pressure somewhat. Repeated droughts
in the
agricultural states will cause President Cuban to
declare
some food supply emergencies. |
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The EU will split into unofficial factions: Germany-
Austria-
Czech Republic and the lowlands and Nordics,
Greece-
Turkey-Spain-Italy-Bulgaria, Poland-France-Ukraine-
UK-
Portugal, etc. |
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The patient with the first cloned heart to be
transplanted
will be alive for 3 years and be doing fine. |
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Miami and Fort Lauderdale will be flooded out. |
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(1) The ongoing advancement of computerisation will have proceeded
to the point where we've collectively given up on base-10 arithmetic
altogether, and moved wholesale to hexadecimal, making it the year
0x7ec. |
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(2) The oldest members of society will still harbour fond memories of
how much easier things were pre-hexadecimalisation. |
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//Allen says do your own chores// |
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He can be my body guard, I can be his long lost pal. |
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//We will have found living bacterial life deep undergound on
Mars but, disappointingly, it will be found to share a common
ancestor with Earth// |
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Having been discovered to have been accidentally transferred
from earth by one of the earlier Mars landers you mean? :) |
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No, transferred by the several million tons of rocks that
have been swapped between Earth and Mars over their
histories. Further work will be needed to determine
whether life started on Earth and hitch-hiked to Mars, or
vice versa. |
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I've always been a little perplexed by that one, I can see
how passing rocks can hit either planet of course but I've
never really heard anyone explain how said rock gets off
either planet in the first place? |
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Given how hard we seem to find just getting really small
packages into geostationary orbit (not to mention escape
velocity) when we're actually trying has always made it
seem like there's a bit of a hole in the theory to me. |
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Not saying there is a hole in it, just that I wish someone
would fill the one in my understanding of the idea for me
:) |
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Any large impact will throw a lot of rocks out into space -
for instance, the dinosaur-killer would have thrown
millions of tons of Earth rocks out of our gravity well. |
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What is surprising (but nevertheless true) is that not all of
these ejected rocks are super-heated by the impact -
many of them remain at quite comfortable temperatures.
Then then rapidly cool once out in space. They also don't
get cooked as they re-enter a planetary atmosphere:
their outermost layers get cooked, but this happens for
such a short time that their insides remain cold as long as
they're bigger than tennis balls. |
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So, the only real question is whether bacteria can survive
inside a lump of rock for many thousands of years (or
perhaps just a few centuries, if the trajectory is lucky).
There is a reasonable amount of evidence that they can,
being largely shielded from radiation and kept at very low
temperatures. |
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Given literally millions of opportunities to make the
journey, over a window of perhaps tens of millions of
years, it's highly likely that we have swapped bugs with
Mars. |
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The chances of anything coming from Mars are a
million to one, he said. |
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//the dinosaur-killer would have thrown millions of tons of
Earth rocks out of our gravity well// |
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I was aware of that one of course & that it threw large
amounts of dust & debris into the upper atmosphere but I
hadn't realized the forces involved were enough to eject
anything from the planet completely. |
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Tardigrades have been around for a long time, perhaps gives
the option of something a bit bigger than a bacteria doing a
little travelling. |
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I suppose the question then is how often impacts of sufficient
size occur & how many have there been since life developed
on earth, a lot I'm guessing, so essentially it means just about
any large body in the solar system might conceivably be
harboring a few immigrants, interesting. |
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Surprisingly often - massive impacts (easily powerful
enough to throw stuff into space) occur every 10-20
million years. If we assume every 10m years an impact
will wipe out half of life on Earth and human
lifespan is 100 years, then for actuarial/life
insurance purposes, your chance of dying in a massive
meteor impact that happens in your lifetime is about
1 in 200,000. |
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I wonder what Ladbrokes would give? hmm.. that gives me an
idea [link]. |
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Yes, but what are odds that Ladbrokes survives the
meteor apocalypse? |
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// your chance of dying in a massive meteor impact that happens in your lifetime is about 1 in 200,000. // |
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.... in which case don't just put your Ladbrokes betting slip in your wallet - make sure it's somewhere safe - and hope that they've migrated their operations to the cloud. |
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Those are rather better odds than winning the lottery, which must be quite worrying for your species given that you haven't even bothered to develop interplanetary travel yet. Just pure laziness, we call it. |
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//hadn't realized the forces involved were enough to eject
anything from the planet completely.// We've found
several Mars rocks here on Earth. Given that we'll have
found 0.00....01% of what there is, that equates to a huge
number of rocks transferred. |
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//Tardigrades...// The problem there is that, even if they
survived the journey (and they just might), there'd be
nothing on Mars for them to eat. You need something right
at the bottom of the food chain. |
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//Yes, but what are odds that Ladbrokes survives the meteor
apocalypse?// |
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Good, if my idea works, I have an answer (sort of), gotta edit
it
into the new idea but it'll have to wait till later. |
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//there'd be nothing on Mars for them to eat. You need
something right at the bottom of the food chain// |
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Yup.. but they seem to go into some form or other of
long term hibernation at the drop of a hat (no food being
one of the hats I think?) & if they make it there then it's not
unlikely some bacteria will have, maybe even some single
cell plants, so the question then might be how long can
they
survive that way & is it long enough for a food
chain to
develop from those precursors. |
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Good point. If they arrived only a million years after the
first bacteria, they might find food. |
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7. Despite recent sensational UFO videos,the truth will
remain out there. |
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1- The line between AI and us biologicals will begin to
fade as strides are made towards physically merging these
two mechanisms of data assimilation and processing. |
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2- A mouse brain will be kept alive and transplanted into
a little car that will complete a maze. |
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3- Animal rights activists will shut down the organization
that put the mouse brain in the car. |
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4- The Universal Bill of Rights will be rescinded by the
"World Organization Of People Who Should Be Running
Absolutely Everything Because Of Uhhh... Climate
Change". |
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5- Self driving cars, while not perfect, will be shown to
have an accident rate 1/100th that of human driven cars. |
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6- The Halfbakery will be sold to Facebook and the
bakerspersons will all get rich. And deservedly so. |
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// You need something right at the bottom of the food chain // |
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7. Self-driving cars, operating entirely on transplanted
mouse brains, will cause massive congestion around cheese
factories. |
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//massive meteor impact that happens in your lifetime is about 1 in 200,000// |
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aw crap.
Buckle up folks, those odds are nothing at all to beat. |
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I knew I shouldn't have put my hard hat in storage. |
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2028? Ten years? (mind spins) |
|
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(1) AI overtakes human recruiting as an essential HR
function. App-driven acceptance notes sent to anyone
qualified by a "time to train" algorithm. Motivation no
longer an important employee trait, after the software
learned that no human can to a better job if the job is
always to do a better job. |
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(2) There's a groundswell of demand to eliminate and
rewrite laws. The last NRA funded political outreach
program identifies 2nd Amendment loyalists as the only
group of USAins shown to be consistently able to correctly
read and interpret law, so a Department of Corrections
slate of directors is sent by the NRA to president Maria
Bartiromo who backhands the work into motion. |
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(3) There will be a biological catastrophe wrought by
some misguided attempt to control an invasive species,
putting the food supply of millions at risk. An attempt to
introduce genetically sterile males to eliminate feral cats
skips the species barrier, resulting in dogs with
retractable claws. |
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(4) Style and body mod take a turn for the macabre,
when trendy people have swatches of their own skin
transplanted to their foreheads. Health insurance refused
to pay for it (or anything else by 2028), but it's been such
a huge cottage industry the government will have
regulated it into legitimacy. |
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(5) People will sit at home night after night watching
informative programming, all the while wondering what's
all the fuss about Earth's geographic and magnetic poles. |
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(6) Worldwide literalists or cognatists are able to
demonstrate that multiculturalists suffer the same
inadequacies as multitaskers, so it is no longer beneficial,
thoughtful, or even useful to make oneself understood.
Ennui can be had or lifted by a pill, if anyone cared. |
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//(4) Anthropogenic climate change will have been recognised as a collective delusion.// Man made global warming leads to an even greater level of mass extinctions of entire species than even the most pessimistic could have predicted. Sir David Attenborough, who warned of this eventuality in his award winning Blue Planet series, begins another series through the wonders of digital personality reconstruction. This one is entitled "You Blew-it Planet". |
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The Pacific Ocean is renamed the Poly-Pacific Ocean on account of it now being just a vast thick sterile sludge of Starbuck's plastic coffee lids and floating detritus from McDonalds and other assorted toxic junk food outlets. |
|
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The first Trumpstweet dictionaries sell out overnight in large parts of America where the ability to read and write and speak has totally died out. |
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Triffids have been seen again on the outskirts of mega city Lagos (population 100 million). No spokesperson from Trumpsanto was available for comment in a language that anyone could understand without the use of an interpreter. |
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Laughing is banned throughout the USA as an act against God. |
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(11) The number of Economics PhD theses on the
causes, effects of and socio-episteliogical analysis
of the late 201X's cryptocurrency bubble outnumbers
all other PhD theses submitted that year. |
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that's interesting, hippo. |
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8. [xenzag] will learn a second note. |
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No [tc], these aren't supposed to be blatantly idiotic. |
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People will watch more videos; the videos will be live-generated CGI driven by AI watching the viewer. Individuals will share less and less common experiences with each other as all modes of communication including phone calls and handwritten letters are silently intercepted and adjusted by the system (as we see currently with "customised" twitter and facebook feeds). Political cultural and social discussion will be dominated by competition between these different commercial AI systems whose placid tame humans merely consume and agree with the content they are fed. Global balance of trade gradually eliminates the imbalance which allows the rich world to subsist on the labour of the poor. Economic recession deepens but no-one notices or is able to do anything about it. Radical back-to-the-landers who shun electronic gear organise to overthrow the system but are hunted down by autonomous killer drones. Their over-relience on FOTL conspiraciy theories renders them useless. The Greenland ice sheets collapse and sea levels rise by 10m flooding all major cities. |
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Plastic items will start to biodegrade as bacteria evolve the ability to
eat them. |
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(I've been wondering for years whether this was possible,
and it seems that it is; see eg the [link].) |
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Good idea. Instead of a bacteria that eats plastic, someone
could save the world by developing a super bacteria that
only eats Americans. |
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//I've been wondering for years whether this was possible,
and it seems that it is// |
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This is old information [Wrong] I've known about that
bacteria since the 90's & the rest of the world (well.. peeps
in the science & academic community) new of them long
before me.. |
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Back in the day as a student with a nice pristine Gamma
World box set (2nd edition, published 1983) I thought the
Yexil (see link) was just silly. |
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So I went looking to see if I could rationalize it with real
science, didn't take long to find, wasn't exactly
an obscure industrial secret even then :) |
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We've been using oil munching bacteria to help clear up oil
spills (see link) since (iirc from the television news back in
the
day) the 1990's at least (probably longer) & many (if not
most.. or practically all?) our artificial
fibers & materials (like plastic) come from oil so
it's not exactly a stretch, this has probably been on the
books since
as early as the 70's (see next link). |
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Could a two prong approach be the best solution [xen]?, do
both :) |
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//This is old information// |
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Yet none of the plastic items I have on the table in front of me appear
to be biodegrading. |
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My radical prediction is that by 2028, they will be, along with many of
the other plastic items on the other tables in the world, and that we'll
all have to start replacing plastic stuff frequently as a result. |
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//none of the plastic items I have on the table in front
of me appear to be biodegrading// |
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Of course not, you've not sent off for your plastic eating
bacteria pack
have
you, order online, wait for delivery, sprinkle over plastic &
wait
;p |
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But your just being silly there (aren't you?), it's not
really something
we ever want loose (or "wild") in our immediate
environment is it, half your clothes & a whole bunch of
other stuff would disappear if it was, if any strains do
develop that can survive in the wild (or at least the urban
wild of a town or city were they'll find
food) it would be considered a pest like termites or clothes
moths & every effort made to exterminate it. |
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//My radical prediction is that by 2028, they will be// |
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I don't really think that's so radical, to quote (or
paraphrase) Jurassic Park "life finds a
way". |
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Besides, (all the rest aside) with
the way this sort of science is increasingly accessible
to ordinary members of the public it's easily something I can
see an eco-activist cooking up in his garage then releasing
to the wild in the not too distant future so I wouldn't give
odds against you on that one. |
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// a super bacteria that only eats Americans // |
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Things that eat Americans already exist. They're called bears* and they're Baked and WKTE. |
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*Or possibly Canadians. Both are large terrestrial mammals covered in dense coarse hair, with very large teeth and claws, an agressive temperament, and communicate largely by grunting and growling. |
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The easiest way to tell them apart is to check if they're carrying an ice-hockey stick, although this is not a definitive test. |
|
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Just let our healthcare system continue such as it is
and a slightly more aggressive variant of a cold
should do the trick. |
|
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1. An eco-activists releases a generically engineered
airborne bacteria able to metabolize any petroleum or
petroleum based product. |
|
| |
Investigations discover he developed it in his garden shed
with a home bio engineering kit marketed by Toys“R”Us,
(recommended ages 10-14).. not the original company a
new one incorporated after it's founder bought the rights to
the name at a Pennsylvania garage sale in 2021. |
|
| |
Within four years all plastic, petroleum & crude
everywhere in the world has been consumed.. there's a
little bit of an energy crisis. |
|
| |
//Good idea. Instead of a bacteria that eats
plastic, someone could save the world by developing
a super bacteria that only eats Americans.
— xenzag, Mar 24 2018// |
|
| |
Another sexually frustrated, lonely and bitter
progressive
with fantasies of murder and genocide. |
|
| |
Another radical prediction: by 2028, the word "bacterium" will have
been removed from all dictionaries, because nobody ever uses it any
more. |
|
| |
// Another sexually frustrated, lonely and bitter progressive with fantasies of murder and genocide // |
|
| |
Vegetarian teetotaller, too... funny, that sounds just like Hitler.... |
|
| |
//the word "bacterium" will have been removed from all
dictionaries// |
|
| |
That's actually due next year, I saw the minutes of WORD's
(World Organisation of Reliable Dictionaries) last quarterly
meeting only last week, the Oxford English will lead off in
April with other dictionaries following over the next seven
months. |
|
| |
//Vegetarian teetotaller, too... funny, that sounds just like
Hitler....// |
|
| |
So does the part about wanting genocide against millions of
innocent people. |
|
| |
Bet she likes dogs more than people too. |
|
| |
Cats. We can smell a stinkin' evil cat-lover a light-year away. |
|
| |
Besides, we like dogs more than people, too. Not difficult. You wanna make something of it ? Huh ? HUH ? C'mon, then. Give it your best shot, if you think you're hard enough. C'MON ....! |
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<wonders if it's worth asking SWMBO for another HB account so as to make the Godwin's Law call and earn another USD $5/> |
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//We will have found living bacterial life deep undergound on Mars// |
|
| |
Given the launch windows, you're basically saying the very next major probe will have a way to drill deep into the ground on Mars. I find that unlikely. |
|
| |
Have you found bacteria deep underground on you own planet ? |
|
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Aliens will be found living among us. They will be given amnesty. |
|
| |
AI will still be "almost there". Your computer still won't be capable of near-human interaction, but tens of thousands (out of the necessary millions) of commands will be possible via natural speech. The Turing test will be "passed" but only by virtue of gullible humans and the people offering the test pretending to be computers. |
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Level 5 cars will be found on the roads in all lower US states. |
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30% of the homeless will have been given free housing. |
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The US will be in a recession, and this will be REALLY pushing new welfare proposals. |
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There will be an economic boom in Africa. |
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//Have you found bacteria deep underground on you own
planet ?// I think the current record is 1.3km. |
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So in horizontal terms, less than the average distance between two branches of Starbucks ? |
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// Aliens will be found living among us. They will be given amnesty // |
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"given" ? If we want anything, we will simply take it from you, along with anything else we want. Like spoons. Spoons are good. We like spoons. |
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... would like to bun an anno |
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//If we want anything, we will simply take it from you,// |
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I've told you about this before, [8th]. You've left me with
no option. Sturton AND the Intercalary will be round
tomorrow. |
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See my last prediction: "Laughing is banned throughout the
USA as an act against God" Seems like some here are
practicing to become enthusiastic humour celebates in
anticipation of the new laws. Instead of Americans can we
not call them Amackerels, since they swallow any bait
that's dangled in front of them? |
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Wouldn't that be an act against Cod, then, mon amie? |
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There's a time and a plaice for that sort of pun, and this isn't it. |
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//The Universal Bill of Rights will be rescinded// |
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No, it won't be rescinded. It will be "updated", so as to be more
"relevant" - much creepier. |
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Or they'll say the concept of human rights is in
itself oppressive to the Earth because it elevates
the
existence of man above that of other creatures. |
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"We, the stewards of Mother Earth declare that no
human
shall be worthy of any rights whatsoever until
rights have
been established and enforced for all the other
creatures
on Earth and
that humans may be enslaved or killed as
necessary to
ensure the rights of every tree, plant, fish, bird or
animal walking the Earth." |
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//I’ve got a radical prediction, and I’m serious about this// |
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Um.. you do realize you sort of left a bit out there don't you
[Ian]? |
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All you've actually said so far is "I have a prediction, things
will change" (albeit in a few more words than that) ..
then you just kind of tail off. |
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"What" & "how" might have been good :P |
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In b4 "triggered" (just in case) ;) |
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I predict a significantly nonzero chance of Artificial General
Intelligence. My real prediction is that AGI will be achieved
by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) within 30 years
with 100% probability (and I plan to post to
/r/changemyview about that with more details this Friday),
so let's say 15% probability of that happening within ten
years. |
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//Wouldn't that be an act against Cod, then, mon amie?// Every act has its plaice. Ha. There's nothing like a fishy pun. |
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I will never again visit that hive of virtue signalling and censorship. |
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There is a nonzero chance that the earth will be destroyed tomorrow. There is a nonzero chance AGI will not be developed by tomorrow. Therefore the odds of reaching AGI are <100% |
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I haven't seen anything like that there. It's one of my
favorite subreddits, actually. IME, people there are more
reasonable and open to considering other points of view
than just about anywhere else I've been (which is, after all,
its purpose). |
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Also, please define virtue signaling in your own words. |
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//people there are more reasonable and open to
considering other points of view than just about anywhere
else I've been// |
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That seems a little off the wall to me. |
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I can't figure out if you're using irony or are serious? |
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For the most part I find it's only marginally less ridiculous &
toxic than the stuff you find in Yahoo Answers. |
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But I'll grant you my experience of the site is limited to one
or two of the game subreddits with only (very) occasional
toe dipping into others in lurk mode so it is conceivable I've
only experienced some of the worse areas of the place. |
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I'm talking about a specific subreddit, whose purpose is
debate and consideration of other points of view. I grant
that most of Reddit is often not like this. |
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I predict that conversations will continue to run their course
here, till the end of time. |
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At which time several brilliant bakers will disagree about
the real meaning of "The End of Time", and all will be right
with the world again. |
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// the real meaning of "The End of Time", // |
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Where's Prof. Hawking when you need him ... ? <sigh/> |
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Just saw an executive from a helicopter company claim on
CNBC that within 5 years, there will be EVTOL service to
skyscrapers in multiple major cities including New York. |
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There's nothing to stop it, other than consumer reluctance after the first few fatal crashes. |
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Probably no less safe per passenger-kilometer than any other form of rotary wing flight, and better than autogyros. |
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As a business model it's worked very well for the USAF, so why not ? |
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Hey man, gotta bomb somethin'. |
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(I have decided to delay my above-mentioned post, because
I realized I need to type a lot more than I thought.) |
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just reminded myself of this idea. OK so far. That female
president bit may have to wait with Warren taking a bit of a
hit in the polls. |
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[DrBob] Net Neutrality seems to have not eaten the
Internet? How about that Starlink too, we may actually
have ubiquitous satellite Internet within the decade from a
completely new player. |
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... and ooh, won't national governments just love that ... an Internet they can't control at all ... |
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The consequences for your societies will be devastating; the collapse of nation-states as meaningful entities. |
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Our technology transfer programme is quite carefully thought out; we're going to make sure that all of those little cubesats arrive in their correct orbits without incident ... <gleeful sniggering/> |
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Happy New Year halfbakery! |
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// Net Neutrality seems to have not eaten the Internet//
Still another 9 years to go, tc & I hope that my prediction will not come to pass. From where I am sitting though, monetisation & censorship seem to be consistently nibbling away at its edges. The 'bakery is a beautiful little oasis amidst a slowly rising sea of corporatisation.
I think the Arab Spring put the frighteners into every government on the planet & they are all exerting themselves to make sure that it doesn't happen again in their country. So
I see your Starlink & raise you the Russian 'off-line' internet.
:) |
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The Russians, like every other sovereign government, are running flat out to stay still. Of course thy're terrified. They're trying to control technology as it is today; technology that is already obsolescent even as it is deployed generally. |
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What price a 56k dialup modem in 2020 ? Not so long ago that was "state of the art". Now, they're gathering dust in cupboards. |
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Existing socio-political systems cannot react fast enough to address emerging technogical developments. They're already dead, they just haven't stopped twitching yet. Regional governors will have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local systems in line ... |
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[DrBob] to be sure on all of those, but the law that cable
providers lobbied for did not stop the Internet, and with 5G
and price competition among OTT streamers, the worry
about download speed pricing will seem like a worrying
about providing leather for buggy whips. |
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Isolating from the Internet while maintaining internal
connectivity is surely self-defeating. |
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[tc], care to rescind your prediction about Putin yet?
Or do you think he'll be pushed out somehow? |
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//I haven't seen anything like that there. It's one of my favorite subreddits// |
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I was talking about Reddit as a whole |
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I think something will happen, [Ray]. Not rescinding yet... |
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seems as good a time as any to toggle this to the top of the
list. Some great annotations from MB and 8th :( |
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I claim prophet-status with this: |
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Just let our healthcare system continue such as it is and a
slightly more aggressive variant of a cold should do the trick.
— RayfordSteele, Mar 24 2018
[edit, delete] |
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[RayfordSteele]; prophet-status accepted. All will bow before you. |
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//All will bow before you// It's spelled with one el, and I don't think he plays the fiddle. |
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[MB]'s //6) The 5-year survival rate for 95% of cancer types will be above 75%// was briefly true here in Canuckistan. Sadly, personnel loss in our medical system, labs closures, and glitches with the supply chains that supply the whole show are interfering with the success rate. |
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[tc]'s //6. Sports betting and online gambling will be legal throughout the US// is also true, even here in Canadanada. When your address is in the 'NetSpace, ALL the things are possible. |
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[doc]'s //6- The Halfbakery will be sold to Facebook// can never come true*, due to the Law of Paradox. If we are sold, we'll all disappear**, thus removing the object which was sold. However, the same law predicts that [jutta] is already very rich from this prediction, despite HB not being able to be sold. Probably an elderly aunt left her a sizeable fortune in an as-yet-undiscovered teapot. |
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**difficult to herd, as with c@ts |
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Thank you [n s]. I shall now speak in incomprehensibly vague
generalities from here on out. Incidentally, you should look
into getting that thing taken care of you were thinking about
last week before it gets out of hand. |
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Putin gone before 2028 was my #1 prediction. Hope springs
eternal |
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Looks like I was way too optimistic about l5 cars. Well now I'm even more depressed. |
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[+] to [RayfordSteele] for //a slightly more aggressive variant of a cold should do the trick// |
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Interesting -- so AI, definitely, but total fail on my top 2. Doing a bit better lower in the list -- still 4 years to go |
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