h a l f b a k e r y"It would work, if you can find alternatives to each of the steps involved in this process."
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like a weather forecast, this would have to be probabilistic i.e. There may be about.
a magnitude 2 earthquake in this district in the late afternoon. Sort of like tornado warnings.
So far earthquake prediction as been either 1 ) where destructive events have left there mark in the environment
in a periodic fashion, then it is reasonable to predict similar levels of destruction and periodicity in the future. 2 ) the idea of earthquake storms, where one earthquake increases the stress at the next locked point along the same fault, increasing the probability that that will by the site of the next earthquake, and after that one the stress gets passed to the next locked point, and so on. This technique only works on some well mapped / characterised faults such as the North Anatolian fault these two methods are only suitable for longer term planing, such as not moving to Istanbul Seattle or Vancouver.
Here is an idea that might bring earthquake prediction up to about the accuracy of a 1950's weather forecast
a) The earth is not getting bigger, or smaller, over time! (most) Earthquakes might be expected to cause either an increase or decrees in the circumference of the earth along the great circle along which the earth moves.- so by tracking earthquakes globally and calculating there effects upon other faults on there grate circle it aught to be possible to extend the earthquake storm model to cover most earthquakes. Because there are thousands of earthquakes every day a picture of exactly where on the globe the stresses are changing will be quickly built up. This information by its self dose not provide the prediction has to when a particular fault will rupture, to get that information it would be necessary to run the model with 50 or so years worth of historical data. At first the model will be more useful for excluding earthquakes, because a particular earthquake fault had been under grater stress than this in the passed and did not rupture. going forward it will become increasingly good at predicting earthquakes, particularly in those areas that generate a lot of data. b) Liberation. When the earth is struck by a large earthquake, it rings like a bell. Further earthquake are more likely whilst the earth is ringing / vibrating. c) Although tidal forces are too small to cause an earthquake it is possible that they may play a part in triggering some earthquakes. This will become apparent as the model is run, if it is a real effect
The 90 east ridge and other similar poorly described seismic zones pose a problem, as it will not be clear if an there earthquake increases or decreases the stress along the appropriate grate circle Running the model with historical data should make it obvious which it is. I suspect that the 90 east ridge is a pressure ridge, smiler to those that form on sea ice.
I used the word (most) above because very shallow earthquakes need not necessarily be strongly linked to the underlying tectonic plates.
Japan Earthquake gov website
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/ [not_morrison_rm, May 20 2012]
Esther Rantzen
http://en.wikipedia...wiki/Esther_Rantzen The Teeth Have It ... [8th of 7, May 20 2012]
Esters
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ester They often have pleasant, fruity odours. [8th of 7, May 20 2012]
No, dogs and cats CANNOT predict earthquakes
http://www.johnmart...papers/00000072.htm CONCLUSION This study shows that a significant positive correlation does not exist between the behavior of pets in the San Jose area and the occurrence of earthquakes within the same area over the three year period from January 1983 through December 1985. Based on this random disappearance of pets with respect to earthquakes,no scheme seems possible to predict earthquakes using newspaper reports of missing pets. [UnaBubba, May 21 2012]
Scotts Mills Earthquake
http://en.wikipedia...ts_Mills_earthquake March 25, 1993 at 5:34 AM Pacific Standard Time [Klaatu, May 21 2012]
[link]
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The forecast warnings should originate from the local
humane society or animal shelter. Dogs go ballistic an hour
or so before an earthquake, even a small one. |
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I'm not sure, but I think it's quite likely that
would-be earthquake predictors have already
looked at your (a) and (c) and failed to find any
predictive value in them. As for (b), it's
reasonable to assume that one quake might
trigger quakes in other stressed areas, but I don't
know how much predictive value that has (i.e., I'd
expect any "triggered" earthquakes to happen very
very soon after the "triggering" quake). |
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// Dogs go ballistic an hour or so before an
earthquake// Yeah, but do they, really? I know
there's a lot of mythology about this, but I doubt
it. Bear in mind that there is a natural filter
which makes you less likely to hear stories like
"The funny thing is that Bozo gave us no warning
at all before the quake that brought down our
apartment block." |
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I think it's probably the case that some animals
can detect small preshocks ahead of a major
quake. But then again, these preshocks can be
detected more reliably by seismometers, and
have only limited predictive value. |
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As I think I pointed out in an annotation to
another idea, dogs go ballistic for all kinds of
reasons. Therefore, it is highly suspicious that
dogs have _not_ warned us, ballistically, of some
of the major earthquakes in the past. It may be a
conspiracy. |
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There is probably also room to develop a true
"ballistic dog earthquake warning device",
whereby seismographs would detect preshocks.
At some specified threshold, they would release
multiple trebuchets, causing flocks of
chihuahuahuas to arc gracefully over densely
populated at-risk areas. Such an event would
attract far more attention than a simple siren or a
wireless broadcast. |
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// dogs go ballistic for all kinds of reasons // |
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True. My dogs go bonkers just because it's fun on an hourly
basis. But I've heard the semi-myth all of my
Iife and recently had the chance to witness it, when we
had a low-magnitude quake off the coast of Maine that
hardly anyone felt. My dogs spent the whole morning being
an entirely different kind of strange. They were also trying
to hide underneath me for most of that time. I personally
lend more credence to the old saw now. |
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Well, as I said, I can believe that animals may notice
vibrations caused by pre-shocks; I could even half
believe that they detect some sort of static effect
caused by compressing lots of quartz-bearing rocks
in the buildup to a quake. However, both of these
things can be (and probably are) monitored already
in earthquake-infested regions; my guess is that
their predictive power is too low or their false
positive rate too high to be useful. |
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Perhaps, then, it could be utilized as a sort of safeguard
confirmation: |
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"Alright, let's have a look at those readouts." |
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"Well, as you can see, sir, there's been a significant build-
up of activity for the last twenty-four hours." |
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"Hmm...these figures are quite alarming. What do the dogs
say?" |
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"They're going completely out of their minds, sir." |
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"That seals it; broadcast the alert!" |
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Namazu..."In Japanese mythology, the Namazu (鯰) or Ōnamazu (大鯰) is a giant catfish who causes earthquakes." |
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Probably came about as people saw the catfish getting jittery, then the quake came and mistaking cause and effect. |
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Anyway, don't need it over here, it's like buses, there'll be another along in a bit. In fact 20th of May 2012 there were 6 earthquakes, mostly teeny. I like the auto publishing feature and you can an almost instant magnitude and epicentre..see link |
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// What do the dogs say? // |
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This is going to depend a lot on the breed ... |
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"So, what are the latest readings ?" |
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"Somewhat mixed, Sir. The Chihuahua is yapping hysterically, the chocolate Labrador is sitting down, wagging his tail and staring at everyone with an expression of benign bewilderment, the German Shepherd is patrolling the perimiter, the Yorkshire Terrier is attacking everything in sight including iteslf, and the Basset is asleep under the table. " |
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"Hmm ... all normal, then ?" |
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"Yes, Sir. But the collie has drawn THIRS GONIG TU BY ANE ERFKWAYK on the whiteboard, and while no-one was looking the Shih Tzu used the computer to buy an airline tickets using my credit card, and he's now quietly waiting at the kerb for the Limo he booked, along with his pile of Gucci and Louis Vuitton luggage." |
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//dogs// esthers released by tension/compression of subsurface rock ? Perhaps there's a pre-earthquake smell. |
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You don't by any chance mean "esters", oxygen-linked hydrocarbons, do you ? |
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// Perhaps there's a pre-earthquake smell. // |
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There's definitely a post-earthquake smell from those who were extremely scared but couldn't make it to a bathroom... |
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hmm... guess I spell it like that to disambiguate from 'estuary". Whatever. |
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An odor wafting in the air, non-detectable by olfactorily challenged humans. |
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"Ah, there's silicon in the air today eh Rover?" |
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Or third-party: plant roots get a whiff and the plant releases something in response which dogs pick up on. |
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The dogs business is entirely confirmation bias. |
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As in like "There's going to be an earthquake in Italy sometime soon" ? |
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Never mind the fact that Italy sits on a notoriously active and unstable fault network. It's like the weather forecast for Salford; "Rain. More rain later". |
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Maybe he should get a job writing horoscopes for the National Enquirer. |
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With twitter/facebook/etc. if the dog thing were
true, there should be multiple cases of "the dogs are
acting funny" tweeted just before an earthquake
occurred. Has anyone seen such? I am only aware of
the same sort of after the fact reporting that has
always been common, and is most likely
confirmation bias (my cat galloping back and forth
across the apartment is unusual, but common
enough. If it happens just before an earthquake its
likely to stick in my mind) |
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Maybe I am letting hindsight get the better of me, but my
dogs were acting _really_ strange that day. More than just
the full moon crazies. |
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Maybe they were just reacting to your 14+ farts for
the day, [Alter]. <link> |
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That happens most days. Not to mention that my output is
a
drop in the ocean compared to theirs. |
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On March 14, 1993 I sent an e-mail to the USGS and
advised that an "earthquake will occur within 2 weeks". I
received a tersely worded e-mail back that went on to
explain that "earthquake prediction is impossible at this
time". |
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11 days later, I sent them another e-mail stating that they
were correct. I had predicted "within 2 weeks" and the
Scotts Mills earthquake <link> had happened only 11 days
since my original e-mail. |
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I don't send them e-mails anymore...I simply tape my
cupboards closed and move the artwork to the floor. |
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Well, if you persisted in sending them emails just
before every quake, eventually they'd pay attention. |
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Actually, there's probably money to be made here,
even by us non-earthquake predictors. I feel a post
coming on. |
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