human beings need water air light food poop medicine for
the
occasional sickness and, to an extent company ( at least one
person to keep them company) .
in space this means they need
air filter systems
water filter systems
sanitation systems
lighting
medicine and first aid equipment
enough
of these for at least 2 people ( so they dont go
crazy)
all the talk lately of supercomputing and AI soon reaching a
threshold of human capability means that we should
seriously
be considering how to PRICE the difference between
launching the weight of a fully capable AI system into
LEO space that can displace 2 people and all the systems
they
need to live in order to carry out their mission to conduct
science experiments.
to begin with we must accept a big assumption---that this AI
brain and body we are discussing is capable of replicating
the
thought process and physical process of astronauts as they
complete their varied missions in space. that is a big
assumption of course, but i'm putting it out there so it does
NOT become a point of contention.
now the question is how many KILOGRAMS of AI brains and
brawn do we need to replace 2 people on a future dedicated
mission where 2 people and their dedicated life support
systems would be totally replaced by a robot inside a
chamber
that is large enough to accomplish science experiments in
air.
note that the robot can also likely accomplish experiments
on
the outside of the station in the vaccume of space as
necessary, but for now we are assuming the air itself is pure
nitrogen in a robot only science space station.
well, ignoring the fact that 2 people sleep ( assume future AI
needs to sleep just like humans) then a future AI will
displace
2 humans (160kg)
their clothing bedding and space suits ( 100kg)
their dyhrdated food for a short mission of 1 month on
future
space stations ( 40kg )
their WATER for 30 days ( 40kg)
their water filtration and recycling system ( 80kg)
their physical bathroom and the solid waste it stores (
160kg)
the air ( ? let's assume the robot operates in the same
partial
pressure environment as astronauts -------but with all
oxygen
swapped with nitrogen to eliminate fire risk)
the fire supression system no longer necessary in an all
nitrogen space station( 10kg )
oxygen refiltering system no longer neceesary ( 50kg)
a return module is no longer necessary to bring the crew
back
down ( hundreds of kilograms but this does NOT need to be
included as a return module may already be waiting in outer
space for astronauts Launched to a station or with their own
statino)
my thoughts here are that you can launch a 640 kg
supercomputer with 8 hands capable of experiments and
motion around a station that would displace 2 astronauts
and
all their life sustaining gear. power systems and
requirements
are assumed to stay the same meaning that the robot
benefits
from all the excess electricity that would otherwise be use
on
life support systems.
more likely, the true weight of is much higher, see the links
below for the weight of the soyuz modules.
realistically, a 2000 kg pound super computer robot ( 4000+
pounds) would be economically feasible to replace
astronauts
when it is CAPABLE enough of doing science experiments .
this means as robots as smart as astronauts ,get smarter and
lighter than 4000 pounds they will displace astronauts in
outerspace. NOTE THAT I AM ASSUMING THE ROBOT BEHAVES
AUTONOMOUSLY BUT UNDER INSTRUCTION LIKE CURRENT
ASTRONAUTS
the robots capability for remote operation in near real time
may actually make the robot as capable as astronauts at
conducting science experiments without actually needing to
be smarter than them; so current AI might be sufficient to
achieve this challenge with sufficient bandwidth)
the point of this exercise is for you to help me come up
with a kilogram assements of the actually launch weight at
which unmanned systems that are assumed to be as capable
as astronauts will displace astronauts due to cost and risk
concerns for astronauts health.
side points.
no Public relations risk.
robot can conduct experiments in conditions not amenable
to humans ( on the outside of the stations in the space
vaccum)
robots can work 24/7
robots cannot mutiny
they cannot die as a person, but only have problems that
can be fixed or not. a modular ai can isolate and quarantine
unfixeable problems in its cuircitry. so risk of malfunction is
lower than humans.
their missions can be extended or cut short at will while
they are placed into dormancy or let to burn up upon re-
entry.food water and air constraints are eliminated, making
missions MUCH more flexible
massive COSTS of life support monitoring , health
monitoring, food preparation, etc....are avoided.
robots have none of the air/water/medical/sanity/boredom
risks of astronauts.
and of course astronauts can be sent up to FIX the system if
it breaks.
my point here is that man's time in space in coming to end ,
at least temporarily , as our AI technology development
supersedes our ability to cheaply launch very heavy objects
into LEO that carry human beings for the purpose of science
experiments.
soyuz 3 is 7000 kilograms with 8.5 cubic meters for
habitation.