h a l f b a k e r yA dish best served not.
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According to reputable zookeepers (see link), animals can sense earthquakes before they occur. Imagine a system that recognizes simultaneously occurring unusual behavior in the zoo's animals, as is said to occur before an earthquake. It takes as input video feeds from cameras in each of the animals'
cages/pens/tanks/lairs. Upon algorithmically identifying "unusual behavior", output is piped into a big horn which honks to warn the city, or perhaps to a more modern computer-driven messaging system. According to said reputable zookeepers, this will provide people with around 5 seconds of warning time before the shaking starts -- more than enough time to crawl under your desk.
Zoo mystery: How did apes and birds know quake was coming?
http://www.washingt...QAZrXQcJ_story.html
[swimswim, Aug 25 2011]
How, indeed?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recall_bias
[mouseposture, Aug 25 2011]
2008 Lincolnshire earthquake
http://en.wikipedia...olnshire_earthquake
Just a little one. [8th of 7, Aug 26 2011]
"Toads predict earthquakes: Official"
http://www.theregis...1/earthquake_toads/
[swimswim, Dec 01 2011]
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//algorithmically identifying "unusual behavior"//
Ah, there's an algorithm. That's alright then. |
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I assumed those details would be obvious and boring. It borrows liberally from the airport security industry. |
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Would this not tempt a flashmob to simultaneously
startle animals in zoos country-wide, such that much
hilarity ensues? |
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I saw some unusually behaving animals about 53 hours ago
and remembered the same fact about impending disaster.
What I REALLY need now is some sort of natural signal that
it's okay to come out from under my desk. |
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[+] because it's a challenge to publish a report of
these animals' unusual behavior *before* the
earthquake, rather than after it is
already know to have occurred <link>. |
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Worthwhile whichever result you
get. [marked-for-croissant] good science. |
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I don't accept the premise. Animals act weird all the time, but people only make note of it when something like an earthquake or tsunami happens later. |
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I've met a fellow who can sense earthquakes coming.
The accuracy of his pre-quake reportings to authorities doesn't seem to factor in. (+) |
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//there's an algorithm// Is that the same thing as learning the intonations of one of Al Gore's speaches? (probably an old joke - but I like repeating old jokes) |
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//I've met a fellow who can sense earthquakes coming.// This one's going to be 5.6 on the Rectum scale. |
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True though.
I gots ta tell it like it is... |
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I went through several small quakes with animals around, and noticed none of them reacting early in any way. I also read about dolphins getting washed ashore and stranded by the 2004 quake/tsunami. |
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Still, if the animal-sensing did work, you not have to analyze behavior. You would only have to put a camera in each pen and analyze how much each succeeding image has changed from the one before (some video compressors do exactly that). If every animal was thrashing around at once, a computer would detect varying image values, and you could announce that it was probably feeding time. |
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How do you know they are reacting to an impending earthquake, and not a volcano/rapture/invasion by anunaki from nibiru? |
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You wouldn't.
An animals actions just let you know when they are uneasy. They don't always know why they feel that way, and unlike us, they don't question it. |
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If they act funny prior to an earthquake without any other stimulus other than what they consider normal and it happens more than twice then... is that not proof enough? |
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I think it would be for most long time pet owners. |
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My wife and kids tell me our last dog of fifteen years would start pacing the entrance about ten or fifteen minutes before I came home from work every day, but since I never know my schedule, how could she? |
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Animals can do many things we don't give them credit for.
It doesn't jive with the scientific method though... so therefore, must not exist. |
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Baconbrain, you basically nailed the gist of the algorithm, except that i had envisioned it scripted in Python -- and also, since feeding time is typically staggered across the multiples of beasts, the simultaneous thrashing of animals (and atypical locations, body temps, vocalizations, etc) couldn't be linked to that. |
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And MaxB, you are correct that the system would be an attractive nuisance; but the consequences of such hilarity inducement would be no different than pulling the fire alarm in a building, and would hopefully serve as an effective deterrent. |
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// Animals can do many things we don't give them credit for. // |
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Anecdotal datum: During the Linconshire earthquake of 2008 <link>, a peacefully-sleeping dog located more than 150km from the epicentre, suddenly awoke and went to "Red Alert", about four or five seconds before the humans became aware of a prolonged low-frequency rumble. |
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This is in all probability due to high frequencies, to which dogs are sensetive, propagating faster than low frequencies (audible to humans). |
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The point, however, is that - certainly at night - [swimswim]'s "five seconds" is nowhere near enough time to take protective action. |
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Thirty seconds would be the absolute minimum effective warning period. |
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Five seconds? It's enough time to put the gimp back in his trunk. |
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// During the Linconshire earthquake of 2008
<link>, a peacefully-sleeping dog located more
than 150km from the epicentre, suddenly awoke
and went to "Red Alert", about four or five
seconds before the humans became aware of a
prolonged low-frequency rumble.// |
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Hold on just one moment. Do you have any idea
how many dogs there are living within 150km of
the epicentre? |
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There are about 7 million dogs in the UK, on a land
area of 245,000 square kilometres. A 150km-radius
circle encloses about 70,000 square kilometers,
and should therefore be home to something like
TWO MILLION dogs. |
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If our dog is anything to go by, the average dog
goes nuts for no apparent reason at least a couple
of times a year. This means that, within the
150km circle, there will be four million
"inexplicable dog going nuts" events per annum.
In any given 5 second window, therefore, there
should be approximately one "inexplicable dog
going nuts" event. |
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What I find very, very disturbing is the fact that
there are often earthquakes *without* this canine
five-second warning. Based on the numbers
above, it's pretty clear that dogs are deliberately
keeping schtum in the run-up to most
earthquakes. |
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I'm gonna hafta say no on this one too. My dogs act funny
for any number of reasons, but I don't believe any
mathematical formula could ever sort out 'dogs going
bonkers because there's an earthquake coming' from 'dogs
going bonkers because it's a full moon, or there's a storm
on the way, or a squirrel just farted outside'. Granted, my
dogs are idiots, but I'll put down good
money that it's the same way with elephants. |
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Also, it occurs to me that there are all these people called
'seismologists' who have lots and lots of expensive scientific
machines that _can_ tell the difference between an
imminent earthquake and a squirrel fart. |
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Squirrels don't fart. Their diet lends to a non-gaseous
digestive system. I been told. |
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"Another County heard from …" |
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[blissmiss], thanks. I forgot about that. 'Squirrel farts' have
long been used as a scapegoat for Unexplained Canine
Idiocy in my family, despite their non-existence. None of
you know about that, however, so referencing them here
makes me look* even sillier than usual. |
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//earthquakes *without* this canine five-second
warning// The curious incident of the dog in the
night-time. |
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As my steamed colleague [mouseposture] points out, it is a
widely-known fact that dogs cannot detect earthquakes
after dark. |
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But, and this is important, they CAN look up ... |
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I love this concept for its creepy short story potential. I envision an Outer Limits type thing. You have several parties with potential: the humans who think they know what they are making, various zoo beasts, and the AI they create. |
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Suppose they do a teaching set for the AI, using prerecorded animal behavior for earthquakes, then a prediction set. Fine. But what if the AI signifies animal behavior occurring and no earthquake happens. But something else is happening. At first the humans don't realize the AI is predicting the something else. Then they figure it out. And maybe the animals aren't reacting to the natural event, but something else that they can perceive in the unseen world which knows about the event. And other events. Possibly causing the events. |
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I am reminded of an awesome ghost story about a parrot that mimicked people, and then began to mimick something it could see but that no-one else in the room could. |
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//But, and this is important, they CAN look up ...//
Unlike humans in horror movies. |
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