h a l f b a k e r yRenovating the wheel
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Isolate the live virus and propagate it.
Inject it into all individuals under 60 who aren't high risk. Tell them "You may feel off for a few days, but just carry on".
60% will have no symptoms; 30% will feel a bit off; 9% will feel really ill.
A few will die, but that happens with many existing
vaccines.
In a short time, most of the population will have some immunity and the outbreak will end.
[link]
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Uhhh. But there examples of deaths of young people as well. Wondering,
what are the risk factors. If we can indeed isolate the risk factors, and
hedge
against them with very high confidence, that could be an option. |
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Yes, it's the "cytokine storm" phenomenon. It's an immune system overreaction, and can be successfuly treated with steroids if caught early. It's what caused the deaths in the 1918 H1N1 flu outbreak. |
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There may be genetic risk factors but since immune response is heuristic it's almost impossible to identify those at risk. |
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These individuals will eventually contract Covid19 anyway, it's inescapable. At least this way the medics know who and when, giving them a better chance of going in for the kill. |
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But, in China they had (at high economic costs anyway) (seemingly)
prevented the epidemic. So, question is then about estimation the cost-
benefit of this course of action. |
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They've slowed the spread of the virus, is all. That's useful, but in the end everyone will get it. Most who do will never know. |
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It depends on how much these means reduce the R0. Reduce the R0
below 1, and it's never going to spread widely (and die off very quickly).
The R0 can be controlled
and attacked by simply counting -- i.e., where the points of forking
happen, by estimating the numbers of contacts per location/transaction,
and taking dis-infection actions at those points. |
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And, obviously, we'll all be much more happy to take weakened vaccines
;) |
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That is entirely correct, and if it were a Restonvirus (Marburg, Ebola) the game would be worth the candle. It's not. It's not pneumonic Plague or Anthrax. It's a pissy little Coronavirus that does no lasting harm to 99%+ of cases ... |
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If this is voluntary what's the downside? People volunteer to
go into the military for the good of
their people, a very dangerous operation. |
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I don't understand why we don't have a weakened virus
that would establish antibodies without the sickness but I
don't know squat about vaccines. |
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My cousin owns a company that makes vaccines, he's
basically Jonas Salk only alive. I'll ask him. |
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// It's not pneumonic Plague or Anthrax. It's a pissy little Coronavirus that
does no lasting harm to 99%+ of cases ... |
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So, maybe, just maybe... it highly depends on the pathway, that the virus
infects through? For example, if we infect via a toe, or pinkie of the foot, it
would take sufficiently long time to get to the lungs, long enough for the
organism to have had develop reasonable defenses? |
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You bastard. You utter, utter bastard. OK, how much to delete that anno and keep quiet ? |
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Another money-making scheme crippled before it gets anywhere .... |
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// because there hasn't been time to sequence and test one // |
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But that will only work against this specific strain. These little buggers mutate spontaneously, all the time, just like influenza and colds. You can make a vaccine and it will indeed protect everyone, and the next variant that comes along will go straight through it like a 30mm H.E. cannon shell through an oil drum filled with hydraulic fluid (we have a video and it's AWESOME). |
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These species were extensively investigated by the military of major powers between 1918 and 1960 and discarded because (i) it's impossible to create a vaccine (necessary to protect your own population), (ii) there's no prophylactic treatment, and most importantly (iii) they don't make people ill enough for long enough to be useful. |
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They're useful as a bioweapon simulant, nothing more. |
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// it highly depends on the pathway // |
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It's not online, and we're not going to post it. |
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// in the same exalted company as Boris Johnson and the Americanss Rush Limbaugh and Donald Trump // |
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Ooooh ... we are now A Trifle Miffed. |
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Trading banter is one thing, but that's uncalled-for. |
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//It's not online, and we're not going to post it// |
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Post it or so help me I'll let loose gray goo in your implant factory |
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Well, yes, but for the gods sake, Limbaugh ? The Don is a Top Bloke, Boris is (very) light entertainment ... but not the other one you mentioned ... |
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[Voice], we always happy to receive gifts of out-of-control nanotechnology, thankyou. Tangy ! |
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If it ever gets declassified, we'll post it. |
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Certainly. Copper, fibre optic, phase-modulated ionizing radiation, quantum-entangled particles ? We offer many attractive options and payment plans, although it's always extra if you want Premium Sport or Movies bundles. |
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Though be aware that we sub-contract all that dirty, demeaning stuff to someone else. [xenzag] will be round to do your installation as soon as lockdown ends. Be ready to grab your ankles. |
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This idea falls in to the "it's so crazy it just might work!".
If you have 1,000 hospital beds (in a region) available for
patients, and recovery takes ~2 weeks, you deliberately
infect 5,000 per week. Your 900 seriously ill can go to
hospital (100 spare for people who catch it "early").
Rather than waiting for people to catch it (with the
expected early exponential growth), the progression is a
known thing. Brilliant!
So, who are you, and what have you done with the real
[8th of 7]? |
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Back in the day they would use the plasma from
folk who had already contracted and recovered
from the latest Johnny-come-lately pathogen as a
source of antibodies. They could do that here also,
probably with better results, given the larger
amount of blood and pathogen knowledge we have
acquired since. |
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The problem with your little plan is that some people
catch it and have little effect—some people catch it
and have scarred lung tissue for life—and some people
catch it and die. |
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Rayford, I just saw an article today that said the FDA has
just greenlighted that technique here in the States. |
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// The problem with your little plan // |
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But they'll catch it anyway in the end. This way, you get the money out of the HMO- or at least get to invoice them- in a predictable fashion; and the patients in the last two categories are a very small proportion of the total. |
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// the type who eats all 8 pizza slices before anyone else can get one. // |
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You couldn't be more wrong; we always, always share (with ourselves). |
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No, it isn't. Go round to [xen]'s place and pay your USD $200. You'll be surprised ... |
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"Sophisticated Entertainment for Discerning Gentlemen", you know. |
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She has "equipment" in a range of sizes, according to preference. |
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No, nothing gets past us. Nothing. We are watching you. We watch you all, constantly. Whenever you catch a momentary flash of red in the corner of your eye, that's one of our brow-mounted laser pointers. Resistance is Futile ... |
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Clearly the borg are rather bored stalkers. |
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As [8th] has already pointed out elsewhere, the virus mutates very quickly. One country acquired thousands of test kits from China and found that they suddenly "Don't work". People are also getting reinfected. Maybe it's because the virus mutated, maybe it isn't. |
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It's mutation. These RNAviruses are very fragile and have no error correction. A 1-bit replication error in a single organism is very common and can instantly spawn a new strain if that damage only affects the antigen configuration. Other errors kill it. |
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Perhaps [MB] could .... oh. |
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<Stares wistfully into distance/> |
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<Quietly wanders away to mope/> |
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^ yeah, I had that early this morning, wondering if testing could be done binary-tree fashion. |
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It's like having had an arm lopped off, or the last step that isn't there. |
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// It's like having had an arm lopped off // |
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No, it's not. Arms can, to varying extents, be replaced. |
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//in the end everyone will get it// |
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For our purposes & for all practical purposes, yes. |
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But, being
pointlessly pedantic, there are amazon tribes & a few other
'lost' tribes scattered around the globe that won't. |
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They will get "a" coronavirus. By the time it propagates that far, it will have mutated so far from the current strain that it may not be clearly identifiable. The lower population density will greatly slow transmission, but other biological reservoirs (Bats are notable as carriers of Ebola) with greater mobility will mean "it" gets everywhere in the end. |
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// "8th, you only surprise me with occasional lapses into decent humanity." // |
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[CH], we wish to point out that "[Max] is irreplaceable" is a simple statement of fact, devoid of any emotional content. |
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<Reaches for new pack of tissues/> |
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//Isolate the live virus and propagate it.
Inject it into all individuals under 60 who aren't high risk.
Tell them "You may feel off for a few days, but just carry
on".// |
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Congratulations, you've just invented variolation - an
outdated practice used since at least the fifteenth century. |
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No, no, this is something totally new and different, which is why it's possible to charge so much money for it. |
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Thank you, [Loris]; I hadn't heard of that. Also, the account of it
in Wikipedia is darkly amusing. |
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It is, isn't it ? But it's not the same as our idea ... no weakened, inactivated or dead viruses here, no, you get the Real Deal ... |
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BorgCo COVID-19 vaccine ! Ask for it by name, wherever you see people coughing and looking miserable.... |
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