h a l f b a k e r yBirth of a Notion.
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Get an old dryer that runs, but that has no heat or disable the heat. Fill with papers or pebbles with the names of all the stocks you might consider on them. Turn on the dryer and wander away. Kill some time. Have a coffee.
Return and shut off dryer. Grab a handful of stocks with your right
hand, these you buy. Grab a handful of stocks with your left hand, these you sell.
Saves all that time random walking.
web site
http://randomstocks.buckmaster.ca/
same result [popbottle, Nov 11 2014]
Knowing when to stpp
http://www.american...wing-when-to-stop/3
Really fine article on stopping rules [bungston, Feb 03 2016]
[link]
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I feel like you could save even more time by using a
garbage disposal instead of an old dryer, and simply
emptying your wallet straight into it. |
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everyone does this with their socks already. |
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Darn it, [notripe], you're getting off topic. |
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Doesn't Google predict cold epidemics via searches? Trending stuff would be a pointer, on a section of the stock market, for bets. |
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Surely the best thing is to start a company, with your old dryer as the main asset, then sell shares in it. Try not go recursive by including your own stock name on the bits of paper/pebbles, don't cross the shares, that's all I'm saying... |
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Aren't you afraid you'll lose your stock in the dryer? |
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Socks are what I lose in dryers. |
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Not sure the dryer really grabs me and shakes me, but this reminded me of a fine article on stopping rules. On page 3 (linked) there is a system whereby one can choose the higher of 2 unknown numbers more than 50% of the time through use of a third random number. Very cool. |
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Could one make money in the stock market this way? It is the same problem. If one thinks today's price is higher than tomorrow's, sell. If one thinks tomorrow's is higher, buy. It would work if there were no transaction cost. |
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In a word, no. But the buy low, sell high strategy
has merit |
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I still don't quite comprehend why or how shorting is legal. |
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What's needed here is some kind of remote-session Ouija
board that hooks up millions of investors collective inputs
together. In fact, maybe I'll halfbake that... |
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/ I still don't quite comprehend why or how shorting is legal. / |
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If people who love shorting are giving you trouble, I suggest a sturdy belt. Or maybe tie that drawstring tighter. Plus: remember to wear your clean undies. |
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Shorting is just one way to bet against the stock, put options
basically get you to the same place. |
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You have to have a way to bet against the stock (or bet on
the stock going down in price). You would drastically limit
liquidity if you don't. |
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Actually, a put option is less weird (and less dangerous)
because the loss is limited to 100% of the amount paid for
the option and the gain is limited by the strike price. If
the price drops, there is no question that the person will
be able to buy a share in order to sell it at the strike
price. |
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With a short sale, someone borrows a share of stock and
sells it. Theoretically, the buyer of that borrowed stock
share could loan it out to another short seller. In the
worse case, someone could sell mores shares than
actually exist. There are some measures to safeguard
against this, and if you have your long shares in a margin
account where others can borrow them, the brokerage
reserves the right to sell your shares at any time. Still,
the fact that there have to these safeguards in place
highlights how unstable short sales are, and allowing the
outcome to be dependent on the discretion of the
brokerage seems bad. |
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Perhaps one way to fix short selling and still retain the
liquidity benefits would be to require anyone loaning a
share for short selling to sell a call option for that share
to the borrower. When the short seller borrows a share
and buys a call option, that gives them the right (but not
obligation) to buy a share at a set price (probably fairly
high compared to typical call options) during some time
period. Then, if the price goes up past that strike price,
they can close the short position by exercising the option.
Set the strike price high enough, and for most practical
purposes there would be no change in trader's ability to
short sell, but it would allow for a much more orderly
unwinding in the extreme cases. Thinking about it more,
this scenario is really not much different than the current
situation where the broker has the right to sell the
lenders shares or force the short seller to close their
position except that in this case, the price at which that
happens is pre-arranged. |
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