Half a croissant, on a plate, with a sign in front of it saying '50c'
h a l f b a k e r y
Baker Street Irregulars

idea: add, search, annotate, link, view, overview, recent, by name, random

meta: news, help, about, links, report a problem

account: browse anonymously, or get an account and write.

user:
pass:
register,


             

Partially-scratched lottery tickets

 Premium charged for tickets which are on their way to being winners!
  (+3)
(+3) 		  [vote for,
against]

This a black-market business concept whereby mass quantities of lottery tickets are purchased and are only partially scratched to reveal the underlying information - prize amount, poker hand, etc.

Those that appear to be on the way to winning a prize after a set amount of scratches (according to some algorithm which takes into account the information revealed at each successive scratch) are sold at a profit-maximizing price, above that originally paid to the lottery corporation, according to Bayesian probabilities.

Those already partially scratched but having less potential for winning a prize are sold at a discounted price or scratched to completion.

—somewhatindustrious, Sep 20 2010

http://xkcd.com/795/ [hippo, Sep 20 2010]

Please log in.
If you're not logged in, you can see what this page looks like, but you will not be able to add anything.
Short name, e.g., Bob's Coffee
Destination URL. E.g., https://www.coffee.com/
Description (displayed with the short name and URL.)






       [+] for the effort, but the fact that the lottery corporation makes money means that every scratch will make the tickets look less promising on average.
—FlyingToaster, Sep 20 2010
   

       It's a good idea... - this *could* work, except ...
Venn diagram:

(people who understand Bayesian probability)







(people who play the lottery)
—hippo, Sep 20 2010
   

       new Craigslist category coming right up.
—FlyingToaster, Sep 20 2010
   

       //the fact that the lottery corporation makes money means that every scratch will make the tickets look less promising on average// - this is absolutely right: scratching away a single number will, on average, reduce the value of a lottery ticket. However, most people have such a weak understanding of probability that they may pay over the odds for a number with one (correct) number scratched off. This would have to be tested. If this works you could buy a large number of lottery tickets and scratch off the first number on all of them. The small proportion you find with a number which matches one in the draw you sell at a price which covers your operation. The remainder you keep and scratch off all the numbers - any monor prizes you get from these numbers are profit.
—hippo, Sep 20 2010
   

       Nice way to con the gullible. [+] for evilness.
—infidel, Sep 20 2010
   


 

back: main index
business  computer  culture  fashion  food  halfbakery  home  other  product  public  science  sport  vehicle