h a l f b a k e r yNumber one on the no-fly list
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The idea is to register if you think a movie will be a hit or a bomb. Voting would be for a short period between the first trailers being released and the first screenings, at which time voting would close.
Register your name and vote "Box Office Bonanza" or "Box Office Bomb". Then you're registered
as right or wrong on your guess depending on if the movie makes money or not. There's then an automatic ranking of correct or wrong guesses.
The thing that makes it interesting is, some guy in Modesto living in his mother's basement might rise to fame becoming the voice to listen to. Hollywood will take notice if somebody's predicted 100 movies success or failure with 98% accuracy.
"Uh oh, J.B. take a look at this. Cornholio32 says "Gangster Nuns From Andromeda" is a sure flop. Call the distributor and tell them we're going straight to DVD."
Here's the deal. I'm absolutely sure this has been done before, I just haven't heard of it. Upon proof that this is baked, I'll cheerfully take it down.
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The problem with this, like the world cup picking
animals, is that if you have a million people doing it,
some are going to be right. It doesn't have anything
to do with skill, it has to do with luck. |
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Never underestimate the power of stupid people in very large
numbers. |
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I wrote off Gangster Nuns from Andromeda as soon as I heard the title, but a chance viewing led to me owning a copy, and I watch it every so often. |
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Rug Munchers from Mars now is another animal entirely. |
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//It doesn't have anything to do with skill, it has to do with luck.// |
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Unless somebody demonstrates some skill at predicting that would be un-arguable by virtue of their having a much higher percentage than random or average score. |
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I've been pretty good so I'll try my skills out now. |
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Hercules: Box office bomb. |
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Now it's slated to be a summer blockbuster, massive budget, amazing CGI, let's see if I'm right. If so I'm betting 1,000, so far so good. |
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But mainly, hasn't this been done yet? I'd be very very surprised if it hasn't. |
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//Unless somebody demonstrates some skill at
predicting that would be un-arguable by virtue of
their having a much higher percentage than
random or average score.// |
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The point is that it doesn't work that way. If you
have a 2046 people predict a binary event
randomly, ~1028 of them will be right. If those
1028 randomly predict a second ~512 of them will
be right. Then ~256, then ~128, ~64, ~32, ~16, ~8,
~4, ~2, ~1. All of a sudden, that one has predicted
12 right in a row, which is way above a random or
average score, but it's a given that someone will
have done it. |
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So by your math somebody will, through pure luck, be able to pick 100 movies (or any other random event) perfectly? Doesn't work that way. |
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Take that same 2046 people, they all play roulette betting randomly on black or red. Spin the wheel 100 times. The chance that one will be right all 100 spins is very small. Not sure how small but I'm guessing it's in the millions, if not billions to one range. |
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Carry your cycle a few past 12 and random is meaningless. Something else would have to explain a very high percentage of correct guesses. |
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You've alluded to something that's featured in a trick that's used (supposedly) to scam people. They send out football score predictions in the mail to 10,000 people and keep track of which predictions were right, half per mailing. Then of the 5,000 that were right, they send another prediction, then to the 2,500 that were right until at about 4th or so mailing you've got about 600 people who have been sent game predictions for 4 consecutive weeks that have been absolutely correct. Then they ask for a lot of money to get the predictions for next weeks games. The good part for the scammer is, since about half those people will win, you get to continue until the suckers finally stop winning. Point is, it only goes so far before reality sets in. Same with movie or any other predictions. Somebody getting scores in the high 90s with a hundred or so films under their belt is going to be looked at with respect (and fear) by this multi billion dollar a year industry. |
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