h a l f b a k e r yAssume a hemispherical cow.
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Firstly, Clarke's Laws:
1.When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
2.The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past
them into the impossible.
3.Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
Before something can be made, it must first be imagined.
Every year, more and more stuff that was once though of as fictional, or in the far future, becomes real.
Time to get a grip, humans ...*
We suggest that each year a panel of distinguished elderly scientists (members of the various Nobel Prize committees would be good) are given a list of "cool stuff" - flying cars, teleportation, warp drive, replicants, human cloning - and asked to give an estimate of how soon the average consumer will be able to order it from Amazon.
Importantly, because of Law #1, any "It can't be done" predictions will be ignored (apart from over-unity devices**).
Then, the previous few years of predictions will be compared with this year's, plus what has become "real" in the interim, and graphs of probable convergences drawn, which is published, along with another over-arching graph which has two endpoints - one date for "Everything in Star Trek TOS is real" and one for "Humanity is extinct". Note that the two are not mutually exclusive, and may indeed be the same.
So the predictions would be along the lines of:
1970: "Human cloning by 2100"
1980: "Human cloning by 2075"
1990: "Human cloning by 2050"
2000: "Human cloning by 2040"
2010: "Human cloning by 2030"
2020: "Human cloning by 2025"
2023: "These are my daughters, and also my twin sisters"***.
Flying car, anyone ... ?
*Actually, that time has been and gone; it's much too late for your species. But it's amusing to tease you ...
** You're not ready to know about that stuff yet.
***And if Disney carries on plumbing the depths, "Luke, I am your father ... and your brother ... and your uncle ..." Look, some bad stuff happened during the Clone Wars. Best not to talk about it.
The Age Of Ascendance
The_20Age_20Of_20Ascendance
Relevant [8th of 7, Feb 19 2020]
Noise Level -- even more relevant
https://nevalalee.w...ies-18-noise-level/
[theircompetitor, Feb 19 2020]
Google Quantum Supremacy
https://www.livesci...ntum-supremacy.html
[theircompetitor, Feb 20 2020]
[link]
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This is actually a good idea. Perhaps even a VERY good idea.
How does one apply to be on one of these committees?
And would it also involve noting (recording, archiving,
whatever...) which products/ideas HAVE made the transition
from fiction to fact? |
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// How does one apply to be on one of these committees? // |
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Write your name and a brief resumé on a brown manilla envelope and complete the phrase "I'd be an ideal committee member because... " in less than 12 words. Then stuff the envelope with used currency (nothing bigger than a 20, no consecutive serial numbers) and leave it in "the usual place". Your application will receive diligent and dispassionate scrutiny in proportion to the value of the payment. |
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"What do you say to three shillings, and we forget the
name?" |
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<Proffers palm to receive coins/> |
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In 2019 what technology that was thought fictional or far
future became real? Please exclude anything that didn't
happen for the first time in 2019. |
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Private company human capable space launch |
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Google's quantum supremacy |
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>Private company human capable space launch |
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Done over 10 years ago. edit: Sorry, I misread this. This is a
first. |
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>Google's quantum supremacy |
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haha, no. Maybe when they can solve a real-world problem
at speeds that used to be impossible. Or if you want to say
quantum computing in general, decades ago. |
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Push a button and your car comes to you in a parking lot?
I'll give you that one, but it's weak sauce. |
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You're optimistic and that's fine. But don't let your rose-
tinted glasses blind you. |
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//>Private company human capable space launch |
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Done over 10 years ago. edit: Sorry, I misread this.
This is a first.// |
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Although we'll get there, we're not there yet. I don't
consider ballistic shots space launches, they're glorified
roller coaster rides, including the first Mercury on that
Redstone booster. You need to be going over 17,000 mph
to get to orbit, spaceship one barely got over 2,000. |
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Space Ex has a manned capsule it's testing that's slated to
break the private human to orbit barrier in the next year
or so. |
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<Smiles hopefully, nods, proffers palm to receive more coins/> |
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Come on, [8th]; even Big Issue vendors have EFTPOS nowadays.
Come to think of it, was *that* new in 2019? (Not EFTPOS,
obviously, but homeless people benefiting from it). |
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I remember seeing an exhibit at the Science Museum in London in the 1970's with a set-up of the Supermarket of the Future, with barcoded packages you could swipe past a reader to get the prices read. It all seemed a bit sci-fi and unrealistic to me... |
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//Flying car, anyone ... ?/ zzzzzzzzmmmmmmm -
that’s the sound of the flying pig that just went
past my third floor window. |
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You'd better notify the Committee about that... needs to go on this year's list: "Flying pigs now a thing". |
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I was referring to SpaceX's successful test of the emergency
escapee during launch -- I think odds decent humans fly this
year. |
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On the Google point, attaching link. We were looking for
first, not necessarily fully commercialized. |
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Optimistic? Software is eating the world. |
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As supporting evidence for the concept, historical examples can be collated: |
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"Wrist telephone: Proposed, Comic book/movie "X", 1923. Suggested avaiability, 1965. First commercial implementation, 2008." |
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A comparison between the date of "creation" and the expected and actual implementation dates will be instructive and may improve predictions. |
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