h a l f b a k e r yNot so much a thought experiment as a single neuron misfire.
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End of the world predictions are confusing. You can't
have
a big event unless we all agree on when it's going to
happen. With predictions of the end of times coming
from
various religions, French or Asian mystic's ancient
writings
or just the friendly cult leader down the block, agreeing
on
a date can be difficult.
So let's pick one day and stick with it, I say March 15th.
When that date passes, we'll all say "OK, that date was
wrong so let's push it out one year."
After a few years of this, the lesser brained among us
might get the idea that these predictions are probably
bunk, but that doesn't mean we can't all have some
darkly
comedic fun one day a year.
Now for about 151,600 people, that date will
turn out to be very accurate. Speaking of which, I
wonder
if you'd see a dip in deaths for that day and a rise the
next
to even out the average because of people holding on for
that one glimmer of hope that they see the end of times.
Anyway, we could barbecue and drink beer.
[link]
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Organizing the disorganized 'special' people who think they've got the correct-one-and-only-true End Of The World (a fictitious relative of the One True God)... Ide(s) dunno... hey now, it's already March 16th in Australia* |
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*mangled quote; apologies to 'Sparky' Schulz |
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You just know that they won't factor in leap-years or the 'real' start of the Gregorian calendar, or that 1 really is a prime number and that it'll happen on the 16th when we're all hung-over. |
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Obligatory reference to Julius Caesar. |
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I thought March might have a kind of "downer before
spring"
vibe. Sort of "Hey! We're not dead! Let's be thankful for
the
joy of life and go pick wildflowers! Not today of course,
but
some time this month. Maybe next month. Next year for
sure." |
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If valentines day was financed by the greeting card
companies this could be backed by the survivalists biz.
Freeze dried food, backyard bomb shelters etc. Of course
if the world was ending why would freeze dried yams
make a difference? That's for the survivalist supply biz to
tell us. |
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What on earth makes you think the greetings card industry
wouldn't do cards for this [doc]? |
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Everyone could draw a white outline and place themselves in it for a minute. Chalk companies would be wringing their hands. There could even be a contest around lines to get into the spirit of the day. |
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Sort of baked by the the ancient Celts with Samhain &
Beltane of course (the death of the old year & the birth of the
new) but I'm up for any excuse for an extra annual booze
up. |
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// we could barbecue and drink beer // |
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That implies that it is the beer that is barbequed, and then drunk. |
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Barbequeing is applied to a solid foodstuff placed in the vicinity of hot coals. If beer is poured over hot coals, they will be extinguished and the beer will not be retrievable. If beer is placed in an open container* over hot coals, then it will become hot, the alcohol will be driven off, and the flavour modified. It is unlikely that anyone would choose to drink it. |
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We suggest "We could drink beer, and barbeque food" would be a better phrasing. |
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*If a sealed container is used, then if left long enough, it will explode. This is spectacular and entertaining, but not useful from a beer consumption viewpoint. |
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//What on earth makes you think the
greetings card industry wouldn't do cards for
this?// |
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I think there's business opportunities for everybody
from makers of indulgent desserts to booze
breweries to psychiatrists. |
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I always thought the Santa Claus thing was
designed to teach kids "Don't believe everything
you hear." at an early age. This might be a good
lesson to the folks of Earth. Just because
somebody says something's going to happen doesn't
make it so. |
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It could actually be the one day a year we
celebrate critical thinking. |
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// the one day a year we celebrate critical thinking // |
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Better make sure it doesn't coincide with any sort of election, then. You might cause some sort of serious philosophical paradox. |
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Critical thinking celebrated with alcohol. Seems like a self-
regulating activity in some fashion or other. |
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The next day might be the main time to get into
that. I've done some of my most critical thinking with
a splitting hangover. |
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Critical like, 'why on earth did I drink that much...' |
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Well... it is bound to happen sooner or later. |
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Just how much of an end of the world are we expecting?
I mean, people sometimes use it to refer to the downfall of civilisation, but to my mind that sort of thing has happened already a few times and doesn't really count. |
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So, the options are:
0) Precipitous population drop. Feel free to assign these on a fractional basis, e.g. 50% mortality=0.5
1) Extinction of the human race. (What I consider the minimum permissable use of the term)
2) Sterilisation of the Earth - no more life on the planet
3) Destruction of the planet. |
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Of course, we could go on from there with additional more destructive classes of event, which incidentally destroy the Earth:
4) Destruction of the Solar system (including the Sun)
5) Destruction of the galaxy
6) Destruction of the universe
7) Destruction of all potential universes. |
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// that sort of thing has happened already // |
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No, it hasn't. You'd need something that actually counted as a "civilization" for that to happen. |
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We agree that option (1) is the minimum level to be considered as "The end of the World" (as you know it). |
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// including leap years // |
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The concept of the leap year a introduced by the Gregorian calendar reform in your year 1582 AD. |
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Therefore we assert that the number of leap years in the last 252 million of your Earth years is not statistically significant. |
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That depends on how long a dinosaur lived. If, say, a
Triceratops lived for 50 or 60 years, they would be bound to
notice that their birthday seemed to happening earlier and
earlier into the annual cycle of seasons, as they got older. It
would be not unsurprising, therefore, if they hadn't failed to
not invent the leap year - in fact it's almost inevitable. |
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Since your planet's rotation was faster then, the day length - and therefore the number of days in a year - was different. |
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The idea of inserting a 1 in 1460 correction may not therefore have been appropriate. |
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We leave the calculation of the exact values required as an exercise for the class. Have your written answers ready for next time. Show your working. Oh, and [IT], no more of those disgusting cartoons of yours in the margins, or you will be sent for another course of special therapy. |
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//not statistically significant// |
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