h a l f b a k e r yCogito, ergo sumthin'
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weatherman ratings
public website where weatherman or weatherwoman's predictions are rated | |
in this day of information what would be wrong with a weatherman rating system? on a scale of 1 to 10 you could see how accurate your favorite weatherperson is. we rate everything else and this is as important as jockstraps rated in consumer reports
ED O'LENIC
http://www.pbs.org/...96/weather_2-2.html
Typically Mr. O'Lenic predicts weather patterns at least three months in advance. [thumbwax, Sep 03 2002, last modified Oct 04 2004]
a users guide to rain
http://www.msc-smc....d/probability_e.cfm
this is Canadian (not like the goose, bris) so does it count? [po, Sep 03 2002, last modified Oct 04 2004]
surprisingly accurate predictions.
http://www.halfbake....predictweather.com
interesting views on global warming [briandamage, Sep 04 2002, last modified Oct 04 2004]
[link]
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he has been //been thinking alot lately of nothing// - he says. sorry you caught me on the last day of the school holiday....... |
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//been thinking alot lately of nothing// |
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I like this, btw. But are you sure it's not (half)baked? |
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I'd like to rate the chick who does the weather on the channel 3 news here in NZ at about 1850.
Short term accuracy 7/10
Cuteness quotient 8/10
clearness of speech 9/10
Dress sence 0/10
For gods sake, will someone please sort this girls sense of style out!!! To many frills, and horizontal stripes!!!! |
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The main problem, is that the forecasers all take their predictions from the same agency! |
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It was 105°F in downtown L.A. Sunday, 98°F Monday - hotter in outlying regions. Universally, the No-stradomuses predicted hotter weather for Monday, without predicting such scorching heat Sunday. I stick to Channel 7, as the weathermen are horribly off the mark, but put on an entertaining 2 minute show. |
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Sometimes it seems to me that simply expecting the weather today to be pretty much the same as yesterday is about as accurate as the weather forecast. I have long wanted to see a statistical comparison of the two. |
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I like Steve Martin's character in LA Story, but I generally use [DrCurry]'s method of weather prediction, combined with a bit of looking around. |
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[DrCurry] um...wouldn't that lead to the weather never changing. |
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[Zircon] - oh my goodness. All he's saying is that predicting the weather to be the same as yesterday's could be as accurate as predicting it to be different. Weather forecasters don't make the weather - Brazilian butterflies do that. |
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DrCurry: The comparison has been done. Apparently if you say "The weather tomorrow will be pretty much like today" you will be right about 75% of the time. This was reported on the BBC last year, I'll try to find a link. |
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75% accurate is actually slightly better than the hit rate currently achieved by forecasters. |
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8th of 7: that confirms my highly non-scientific observations. |
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UnaBubba: au contraire, I love all types of weather, as long as it changes once in a while (and, in some cases, I have the option of watching from inside). |
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link for a users guide to rain |
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DrCurry: this 'persistency' principle echoes Dr Mandelbrot's chunterings about stock markets, wheat prices, Nile levels, etc. Wherever you're at, you're most likely to stay there. I think he calls it the Joseph Law -- tie-in with the seven years of plenty, seven years of famine story. |
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Wherever you're at, you're most likely to stay? Weather most likely the same the next day. Erm, maybe but here (Glasgow) the weather isn't like to be the same at lunchtime as it is in the morning. On saying that the weather IS likely to be crap tomorrow, and the next day and the next day.... |
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toupee, what a great word....that gives me an idea. |
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theres a chap here by the name of ken Ring who runs www.predictweather.com (see link) who is amazingly accurate. I regularly plan surf/snowboarding trips around his predictions, sometimes weeks in advance. I'd say he's been on the button 9 times out of 10. he predicts using lunar cycles and i would reccomend having a squint at his website. Don't mean to make it sound like an ad. but he is good. |
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I wear enough clothes, so it doesn't matter what the weather is like. (if you never move fast enough to sweat, there is no advantage in being bare in hot weather. And look at sheep.)
When comparing weather forecasting methods, be sure you have a consistent criterion (max and min temp? rain? wind? sudden change?). Since weather modelling is based on a complex projection of past scenarios, it simply CAN'T consistently do worse than a "repeat yesterday" strategy. |
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[pfperry] 'look at sheep'.... why? do they know something about the weather that we don't? And theres more to weather, than 'wearing enough clothes'. And as far as 'repeat yesterday' goes. bollox. Where i live at the moment, you can't even attempt 'repeat this morning'. So there! |
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where would that be then ? |
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They like Crowded House over in Melbourne then, huh? |
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