h a l f b a k e r yNot so much a thought experiment as a single neuron misfire.
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Similar to the way f***edcompany.com works as a deadpool for corporations, deadmemepool would let people predict the length of time before trendy ideas lose their popularity.
The remaining dilemma is how to decide when a trend is officially dead. Some manipulation of Google, perhaps?
Alternately,
run the site like jumptheshark.com and have users vote on the particular instant when the trend became passe. For example, I'd claim that AYBABTU began to die after the Flash video was made, and that "You are the weakest link, goodbye" [comma splice by popular demand] began to die after the show came to the U.S. [Thanks to goff for bringing up JTS.]
F***edcompany
http://www.fuckedcompany.com/
[bookworm, Feb 21 2001, last modified Oct 05 2004]
catchphrasecentral.com
http://www.halfbake...chphrasecentral.com
Similar idea, but more concerned with the history of popular phases [bookworm, Feb 21 2001]
News digest timeline
http://www.kom.e-te.../christel/#Timeline
Plots word occurrence versus time. Could probably fit a Poisson model to an unfamiliar word or phrase, and predict when it will fizzle out... [rmutt, Feb 21 2001, last modified Oct 05 2004]
Jump The Shark
http://www.jumptheshark.com
Where people predict when sitcoms have passed their best... [goff, Feb 21 2001, last modified Oct 05 2004]
Wikipedia: TrendIO
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trendio.com
[jutta, Mar 11 2007]
Trendio: Wikipedia
http://www.trendio....uage=en&wordid=2315
[jutta, Mar 11 2007]
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Wouldn't work. By the time that no-hoper's like me have heard the latest cool saying, it probably went out of fashion six months ago and is dead already. |
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I think what TrendIO is doing - letting users bet on word frequency fluctuations with play money - implements this in spirit, although not quite in letter. |
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Instead of predicting a point in time, you just predict whether it'll go up (you buy) or down (you sell); that solves the problem of having to set a specific date of when the meme is "dead". |
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