venture companies are often accused now of solving First World Problems (how can I get my specialty coffee made as I walk into the Starbux and have it already be charged to my account).
Well, as the HB, let's be honest -- non-withstanding the occasional geothermal rocket launch -- eh, what? -- we appear to have devolved into short term idiotic predictions, and old debates.
As I was having one just a bit earlier today, I reminded myself that I've been on here about 14 years, in which, I might add, a considerable number of my ideas actually did get baked, nice.
But we don't try to predict the really hard stuff. Ten years out, we're getting "real-close" to some singularity predictions, and the precursors to some really big changes, in tech and in politics appear to be in front of our noses.
I'll make the first, bold one:
The HB will be here to check up on this, and let's hope all of us reading this today, including yours truly, are also going to be there to check how well we did.-- theircompetitor, Mar 22 2018 Baker's Score idea Baker_27s_20ScoreInspired by this post. [doctorremulac3, Mar 22 2018] Indirect Crowd Funding for Meteor Defense Systems Indirect_20Crowd_20...20Defense_20SystemsInspired by [hippo] [Skewed, Mar 23 2018] Plastic-Munching Microbeageddon https://news.stanfo...lastics-092915.htmlThey'll have to take it one substance at a time - but they outnumber us. [Wrongfellow, Mar 23 2018] Yexil http://gammaworld.wikia.com/wiki/YexilOne of Gamma Worlds monsters from the original box set. [Skewed, Mar 24 2018] Oil munching bacteria https://www.scienti...ean-bp-s-oil-spill/Used to help clear up oil spills. [Skewed, Mar 24 2018] Oil munching bacteria https://en.wikipedi...a_Mohan_ChakrabartyNew strains being developed as early as 1971 [Skewed, Mar 24 2018] Mindey's Wiki https://wiki.mindey...ngsSchoolsJobs.htmlNo buildings, no schools, no jobs... [Inyuki, Mar 28 2018] Prediction # 1 https://www.cnbc.co...l-tests-report.htmlJust announced a step moving towards this. [doctorremulac3, Mar 29 2018] Is LaMDA Sentient? — an Interview https://cajundiscor...erview-ea64d916d917 [Voice, Jun 15 2022] Starbucks? Who in their right mind ever goes into any of the outlets of this vile chain with their pathetic "grande's" and "talls"? No one wants to be seen dead in a Starbucks.-- xenzag, Mar 22 2018 The part about you having had several of your ideas baked gives me an idea. How about a category to post those?-- doctorremulac3, Mar 22 2018 all for that -- who judges?-- theircompetitor, Mar 22 2018 k, that fits the earnest requirement :)-- theircompetitor, Mar 22 2018 In 2028, four years after The Disaster, small, isolated communities of survivors around the world have managed to put together a primitive internet infrastructure based on a ham radio transport layer. The Halfbakery is one of the few surviving internet servers and, for many communities, their only communication with others is through annotations to Halfbakery ideas (always using halfbakery.com/lr/ because of bandwidth limitations).-- hippo, Mar 22 2018 that would work well for one of those debate ideas-- theircompetitor, Mar 22 2018 Excellent idea, [their]. Here're my predictions:
(1) Artificial intelligence will be commonplace, but we won't think of it as artificial intelligence. Instead, we will continue to re-define intelligence so that it remains "anything a machine can't do", just as we already have for chess and facial recognition.
(2) A mouse will live to be a healthy six years old, tripling its natural lifespan. Realising that they have the possibility of not dying, people will step out of denial and start pushing aggressively for massive human life extension.
(3) The population size, having peaked in 2024, will slowly start to decline. It will level off from 2038 to 2100 as human expectancy increases twofold, then start to creep downwards again.
(4) Anthropogenic climate change will have been recognised as a collective delusion.
(5) There will have been at least several deaths caused by biohackers, mostly to themselves.
(6) The 5-year survival rate for 95% of cancer types will be above 75%.
(7) We will have found living bacterial life deep undergound on Mars but, disappointingly, it will be found to share a common ancestor with Earth life.
(8) Alzheimer's Disease will be controllable in people who have already started to develop it, and largely preventable in children born in or after 2018.
(9) We will still not have any evidence of extraterrestrial life, apart from on Mars.
(10) The first adult mammal will have been successfully frozen and revived in apparent good health.-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 22 2018 Awesome, [MB].
Artificial intelligence was top of my list is too My guess is we definitely have conversational Turing beater by then for sure, but yes, no widespread grant citizenship movement or anything like that.
Exciting to have someone with your background so optimistic on biomed. I'm doubtful that we'll have enough evidence on climate by 2028. Though I'm glad the penguins and polar bears are safe.
Curious you've made no statements on energy. Surely there must be a fusion reactor nearby just about to achieve breakeven? :)-- theircompetitor, Mar 22 2018 //optimistic on biomed// Well, we're well on the way with cancer; haven't yet got a real handle on Alzheimer's but when we do it'll be simple; and there are developments in the pipeline now that'll give us a six-year-old mouse. The rest was arm-waving, but I have certificate that says I'm allowed to wave arms.
Energy - we'll have slightly better solar and less panic about fossil fuels and a few more fission reactors. Climate change - it'll fizzle precisely because of the lack of evidence: people will just think "oh yeah, everybody worried about that back in the 'teens."-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 22 2018 Here are a few to go on record:
1. Putin will no longer be President of Russia
2. Xi will no longer be President of China.
3. The US will have had (or will have at the time) a female President.
4. Bitcoin will not go to zero.
5. A blockchain enabled application will be the basis of at least one household name tech giant with a market cap above 100 B in 2018 dollars.
6. Sports betting and online gambling will be legal throughout the US
I'll add more after some consideration-- theircompetitor, Mar 22 2018 // Surely there must be a fusion reactor nearby just about to achieve breakeven? //
<peers down Jeffries tube/>
Not at this exact moment, but we can turn it on if you want to see it going.
If you can wait a bit while we boil a kettle, we can get the 1:12 scale steam traction engine going too. That's great fun.
Or you can go down the corridor and look at one of our forced quantum singulary direct-mass converters, but there's not really a lot to see.-- 8th of 7, Mar 22 2018 <nudges Jeffrey>-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 22 2018 ha-- theircompetitor, Mar 22 2018 //The HB will be here to check up on this// It might be, but then again, my prediction is that the internet, as we know it, will have become an increasing irrelevance. Non-commercial sites will become almost non-existent (farewell Wikipedia, farewell most of the blogosphere) as the consequences of ending net neutrality work themselves out.-- DrBob, Mar 22 2018 AI will take care of that.-- 2 fries shy of a happy meal, Mar 22 2018 Yes, but if you extrapolate forward even a couple of decades, storage becomes so cheap that the entire web becomes one vast Wayback Machine, where everything is archived every second.
And then when we change technologies, someone will think "Oh, wait, there's six quintillion yottabytes of web history here - I'll just pop a copy on my iPhone."-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 22 2018 AI will take care of that too.-- 2 fries shy of a happy meal, Mar 22 2018 //AI will take care of that too.//
I just spoke to Allen and he says do your own chores [2 Fries].-- AusCan531, Mar 22 2018 The North and South poles will have flipped.
There will be an accident between a driverless sleep bus and a driverless delivery van, requiring a bunch of temp drivers to step in and take the wheels while the technology court software lawyers battle out whose code is at fault. Software lawyers who can work through code and apply law will be in demand as an occupation.
North Korean trinkets will flood the markets in many countries but be found to lack consistent quality. The Chinese will be battling terrorism internally from economic and demographic pressures.
The Far East Trade War will rearrange the map a little. The US will be caught in the middle with its pants down.
Plastic will be hard to come by, with expenses driven up by sustainability issues with oil sourcing problems in the Arctic, banned chemicals, and regulatory oversight.
The Water War will be fought between Israel and Jordan and some other players, mostly by private companies using mercenaries.
Beef will be seen as a luxury item in places where it was once common. Food prices will be high but bug harvests will reduce pressure somewhat. Repeated droughts in the agricultural states will cause President Cuban to declare some food supply emergencies.
The EU will split into unofficial factions: Germany- Austria- Czech Republic and the lowlands and Nordics, Greece- Turkey-Spain-Italy-Bulgaria, Poland-France-Ukraine- UK- Portugal, etc.
The patient with the first cloned heart to be transplanted will be alive for 3 years and be doing fine.
Miami and Fort Lauderdale will be flooded out.-- RayfordSteele, Mar 22 2018 (1) The ongoing advancement of computerisation will have proceeded to the point where we've collectively given up on base-10 arithmetic altogether, and moved wholesale to hexadecimal, making it the year 0x7ec.
(2) The oldest members of society will still harbour fond memories of how much easier things were pre-hexadecimalisation.-- Wrongfellow, Mar 22 2018 //Allen says do your own chores//
He can be my body guard, I can be his long lost pal.-- 2 fries shy of a happy meal, Mar 22 2018 //We will have found living bacterial life deep undergound on Mars but, disappointingly, it will be found to share a common ancestor with Earth//
Having been discovered to have been accidentally transferred from earth by one of the earlier Mars landers you mean? :)-- Skewed, Mar 23 2018 No, transferred by the several million tons of rocks that have been swapped between Earth and Mars over their histories. Further work will be needed to determine whether life started on Earth and hitch-hiked to Mars, or vice versa.-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 23 2018 I've always been a little perplexed by that one, I can see how passing rocks can hit either planet of course but I've never really heard anyone explain how said rock gets off either planet in the first place?
Given how hard we seem to find just getting really small packages into geostationary orbit (not to mention escape velocity) when we're actually trying has always made it seem like there's a bit of a hole in the theory to me.
Not saying there is a hole in it, just that I wish someone would fill the one in my understanding of the idea for me :)-- Skewed, Mar 23 2018 Impacts.
Any large impact will throw a lot of rocks out into space - for instance, the dinosaur-killer would have thrown millions of tons of Earth rocks out of our gravity well.
What is surprising (but nevertheless true) is that not all of these ejected rocks are super-heated by the impact - many of them remain at quite comfortable temperatures. Then then rapidly cool once out in space. They also don't get cooked as they re-enter a planetary atmosphere: their outermost layers get cooked, but this happens for such a short time that their insides remain cold as long as they're bigger than tennis balls.
So, the only real question is whether bacteria can survive inside a lump of rock for many thousands of years (or perhaps just a few centuries, if the trajectory is lucky). There is a reasonable amount of evidence that they can, being largely shielded from radiation and kept at very low temperatures.
Given literally millions of opportunities to make the journey, over a window of perhaps tens of millions of years, it's highly likely that we have swapped bugs with Mars.-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 23 2018 The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one, he said.-- hippo, Mar 23 2018 Thanks for that.
//the dinosaur-killer would have thrown millions of tons of Earth rocks out of our gravity well//
I was aware of that one of course & that it threw large amounts of dust & debris into the upper atmosphere but I hadn't realized the forces involved were enough to eject anything from the planet completely.
Tardigrades have been around for a long time, perhaps gives the option of something a bit bigger than a bacteria doing a little travelling.-- Skewed, Mar 23 2018 I suppose the question then is how often impacts of sufficient size occur & how many have there been since life developed on earth, a lot I'm guessing, so essentially it means just about any large body in the solar system might conceivably be harboring a few immigrants, interesting.-- Skewed, Mar 23 2018 Surprisingly often - massive impacts (easily powerful enough to throw stuff into space) occur every 10-20 million years. If we assume every 10m years an impact will wipe out half of life on Earth and human lifespan is 100 years, then for actuarial/life insurance purposes, your chance of dying in a massive meteor impact that happens in your lifetime is about 1 in 200,000.-- hippo, Mar 23 2018 I wonder what Ladbrokes would give? hmm.. that gives me an idea [link].-- Skewed, Mar 23 2018 Yes, but what are odds that Ladbrokes survives the meteor apocalypse?-- hippo, Mar 23 2018 // your chance of dying in a massive meteor impact that happens in your lifetime is about 1 in 200,000. //
.... in which case don't just put your Ladbrokes betting slip in your wallet - make sure it's somewhere safe - and hope that they've migrated their operations to the cloud.
Those are rather better odds than winning the lottery, which must be quite worrying for your species given that you haven't even bothered to develop interplanetary travel yet. Just pure laziness, we call it.-- 8th of 7, Mar 23 2018 //hadn't realized the forces involved were enough to eject anything from the planet completely.// We've found several Mars rocks here on Earth. Given that we'll have found 0.00....01% of what there is, that equates to a huge number of rocks transferred.
//Tardigrades...// The problem there is that, even if they survived the journey (and they just might), there'd be nothing on Mars for them to eat. You need something right at the bottom of the food chain.-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 23 2018 //Yes, but what are odds that Ladbrokes survives the meteor apocalypse?//
Good, if my idea works, I have an answer (sort of), gotta edit it into the new idea but it'll have to wait till later.-- Skewed, Mar 23 2018 //there'd be nothing on Mars for them to eat. You need something right at the bottom of the food chain//
Yup.. but they seem to go into some form or other of long term hibernation at the drop of a hat (no food being one of the hats I think?) & if they make it there then it's not unlikely some bacteria will have, maybe even some single cell plants, so the question then might be how long can they survive that way & is it long enough for a food chain to develop from those precursors.-- Skewed, Mar 23 2018 Good point. If they arrived only a million years after the first bacteria, they might find food.-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 23 2018 7. Despite recent sensational UFO videos,the truth will remain out there.-- theircompetitor, Mar 23 2018 1- The line between AI and us biologicals will begin to fade as strides are made towards physically merging these two mechanisms of data assimilation and processing.
2- A mouse brain will be kept alive and transplanted into a little car that will complete a maze.
3- Animal rights activists will shut down the organization that put the mouse brain in the car.
4- The Universal Bill of Rights will be rescinded by the "World Organization Of People Who Should Be Running Absolutely Everything Because Of Uhhh... Climate Change".
5- Self driving cars, while not perfect, will be shown to have an accident rate 1/100th that of human driven cars.
6- The Halfbakery will be sold to Facebook and the bakerspersons will all get rich. And deservedly so.-- doctorremulac3, Mar 23 2018 // You need something right at the bottom of the food chain //
Journalists ?-- 8th of 7, Mar 23 2018 7. Self-driving cars, operating entirely on transplanted mouse brains, will cause massive congestion around cheese factories.-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 23 2018 //massive meteor impact that happens in your lifetime is about 1 in 200,000//
aw crap.Buckle up folks, those odds are nothing at all to beat.
I knew I shouldn't have put my hard hat in storage.-- 2 fries shy of a happy meal, Mar 23 2018 2028? Ten years? (mind spins)
(1) AI overtakes human recruiting as an essential HR function. App-driven acceptance notes sent to anyone qualified by a "time to train" algorithm. Motivation no longer an important employee trait, after the software learned that no human can to a better job if the job is always to do a better job.
(2) There's a groundswell of demand to eliminate and rewrite laws. The last NRA funded political outreach program identifies 2nd Amendment loyalists as the only group of USAins shown to be consistently able to correctly read and interpret law, so a Department of Corrections slate of directors is sent by the NRA to president Maria Bartiromo who backhands the work into motion.
(3) There will be a biological catastrophe wrought by some misguided attempt to control an invasive species, putting the food supply of millions at risk. An attempt to introduce genetically sterile males to eliminate feral cats skips the species barrier, resulting in dogs with retractable claws.
(4) Style and body mod take a turn for the macabre, when trendy people have swatches of their own skin transplanted to their foreheads. Health insurance refused to pay for it (or anything else by 2028), but it's been such a huge cottage industry the government will have regulated it into legitimacy.
(5) People will sit at home night after night watching informative programming, all the while wondering what's all the fuss about Earth's geographic and magnetic poles.
(6) Worldwide literalists or cognatists are able to demonstrate that multiculturalists suffer the same inadequacies as multitaskers, so it is no longer beneficial, thoughtful, or even useful to make oneself understood. Ennui can be had or lifted by a pill, if anyone cared.-- reensure, Mar 23 2018 //(4) Anthropogenic climate change will have been recognised as a collective delusion.// Man made global warming leads to an even greater level of mass extinctions of entire species than even the most pessimistic could have predicted. Sir David Attenborough, who warned of this eventuality in his award winning Blue Planet series, begins another series through the wonders of digital personality reconstruction. This one is entitled "You Blew-it Planet".
The Pacific Ocean is renamed the Poly-Pacific Ocean on account of it now being just a vast thick sterile sludge of Starbuck's plastic coffee lids and floating detritus from McDonalds and other assorted toxic junk food outlets.
The first Trumpstweet dictionaries sell out overnight in large parts of America where the ability to read and write and speak has totally died out.
Triffids have been seen again on the outskirts of mega city Lagos (population 100 million). No spokesperson from Trumpsanto was available for comment in a language that anyone could understand without the use of an interpreter.
Laughing is banned throughout the USA as an act against God.-- xenzag, Mar 23 2018 (11) The number of Economics PhD theses on the causes, effects of and socio-episteliogical analysis of the late 201X's cryptocurrency bubble outnumbers all other PhD theses submitted that year.-- hippo, Mar 23 2018 that's interesting, hippo.
8. [xenzag] will learn a second note.-- theircompetitor, Mar 23 2018 No [tc], these aren't supposed to be blatantly idiotic.-- RayfordSteele, Mar 23 2018 People will watch more videos; the videos will be live-generated CGI driven by AI watching the viewer. Individuals will share less and less common experiences with each other as all modes of communication including phone calls and handwritten letters are silently intercepted and adjusted by the system (as we see currently with "customised" twitter and facebook feeds). Political cultural and social discussion will be dominated by competition between these different commercial AI systems whose placid tame humans merely consume and agree with the content they are fed. Global balance of trade gradually eliminates the imbalance which allows the rich world to subsist on the labour of the poor. Economic recession deepens but no-one notices or is able to do anything about it. Radical back-to-the-landers who shun electronic gear organise to overthrow the system but are hunted down by autonomous killer drones. Their over-relience on FOTL conspiraciy theories renders them useless. The Greenland ice sheets collapse and sea levels rise by 10m flooding all major cities.-- pocmloc, Mar 23 2018 Plastic items will start to biodegrade as bacteria evolve the ability to eat them.
(I've been wondering for years whether this was possible, and it seems that it is; see eg the [link].)-- Wrongfellow, Mar 23 2018 Good idea. Instead of a bacteria that eats plastic, someone could save the world by developing a super bacteria that only eats Americans.-- xenzag, Mar 24 2018 //I've been wondering for years whether this was possible, and it seems that it is//
This is old information [Wrong] I've known about that bacteria since the 90's & the rest of the world (well.. peeps in the science & academic community) new of them long before me..
Back in the day as a student with a nice pristine Gamma World box set (2nd edition, published 1983) I thought the Yexil (see link) was just silly.
So I went looking to see if I could rationalize it with real science, didn't take long to find, wasn't exactly an obscure industrial secret even then :)
We've been using oil munching bacteria to help clear up oil spills (see link) since (iirc from the television news back in the day) the 1990's at least (probably longer) & many (if not most.. or practically all?) our artificial fibers & materials (like plastic) come from oil so it's not exactly a stretch, this has probably been on the books since as early as the 70's (see next link).-- Skewed, Mar 24 2018 Could a two prong approach be the best solution [xen]?, do both :)-- Skewed, Mar 24 2018 //This is old information//
Yet none of the plastic items I have on the table in front of me appear to be biodegrading.
My radical prediction is that by 2028, they will be, along with many of the other plastic items on the other tables in the world, and that we'll all have to start replacing plastic stuff frequently as a result.-- Wrongfellow, Mar 24 2018 //none of the plastic items I have on the table in front of me appear to be biodegrading//
Of course not, you've not sent off for your plastic eating bacteria pack have you, order online, wait for delivery, sprinkle over plastic & wait ;p
But your just being silly there (aren't you?), it's not really something we ever want loose (or "wild") in our immediate environment is it, half your clothes & a whole bunch of other stuff would disappear if it was, if any strains do develop that can survive in the wild (or at least the urban wild of a town or city were they'll find food) it would be considered a pest like termites or clothes moths & every effort made to exterminate it.
//My radical prediction is that by 2028, they will be//
I don't really think that's so radical, to quote (or paraphrase) Jurassic Park "life finds a way".
Besides, (all the rest aside) with the way this sort of science is increasingly accessible to ordinary members of the public it's easily something I can see an eco-activist cooking up in his garage then releasing to the wild in the not too distant future so I wouldn't give odds against you on that one.-- Skewed, Mar 24 2018 // a super bacteria that only eats Americans //
Things that eat Americans already exist. They're called bears* and they're Baked and WKTE.
*Or possibly Canadians. Both are large terrestrial mammals covered in dense coarse hair, with very large teeth and claws, an agressive temperament, and communicate largely by grunting and growling.
The easiest way to tell them apart is to check if they're carrying an ice-hockey stick, although this is not a definitive test.-- 8th of 7, Mar 24 2018 Just let our healthcare system continue such as it is and a slightly more aggressive variant of a cold should do the trick.-- RayfordSteele, Mar 24 2018 1. An eco-activists releases a generically engineered airborne bacteria able to metabolize any petroleum or petroleum based product.
Investigations discover he developed it in his garden shed with a home bio engineering kit marketed by Toys“R”Us, (recommended ages 10-14).. not the original company a new one incorporated after it's founder bought the rights to the name at a Pennsylvania garage sale in 2021.
Within four years all plastic, petroleum & crude everywhere in the world has been consumed.. there's a little bit of an energy crisis.-- Skewed, Mar 24 2018 //Good idea. Instead of a bacteria that eats plastic, someone could save the world by developing a super bacteria that only eats Americans. — xenzag, Mar 24 2018//
Another sexually frustrated, lonely and bitter progressive with fantasies of murder and genocide.-- doctorremulac3, Mar 24 2018 Another radical prediction: by 2028, the word "bacterium" will have been removed from all dictionaries, because nobody ever uses it any more.-- Wrongfellow, Mar 24 2018 // Another sexually frustrated, lonely and bitter progressive with fantasies of murder and genocide //
Vegetarian teetotaller, too... funny, that sounds just like Hitler....-- 8th of 7, Mar 24 2018 //the word "bacterium" will have been removed from all dictionaries//
That's actually due next year, I saw the minutes of WORD's (World Organisation of Reliable Dictionaries) last quarterly meeting only last week, the Oxford English will lead off in April with other dictionaries following over the next seven months.-- Skewed, Mar 24 2018 //Vegetarian teetotaller, too... funny, that sounds just like Hitler....//
So does the part about wanting genocide against millions of innocent people.
Bet she likes dogs more than people too.-- doctorremulac3, Mar 24 2018 Cats. We can smell a stinkin' evil cat-lover a light-year away.
Besides, we like dogs more than people, too. Not difficult. You wanna make something of it ? Huh ? HUH ? C'mon, then. Give it your best shot, if you think you're hard enough. C'MON ....!
<wonders if it's worth asking SWMBO for another HB account so as to make the Godwin's Law call and earn another USD $5/>-- 8th of 7, Mar 24 2018 //We will have found living bacterial life deep undergound on Mars//
Given the launch windows, you're basically saying the very next major probe will have a way to drill deep into the ground on Mars. I find that unlikely.-- Voice, Mar 24 2018 Have you found bacteria deep underground on you own planet ?
How deep ?
Just askin' ....-- 8th of 7, Mar 24 2018 Aliens will be found living among us. They will be given amnesty.
AI will still be "almost there". Your computer still won't be capable of near-human interaction, but tens of thousands (out of the necessary millions) of commands will be possible via natural speech. The Turing test will be "passed" but only by virtue of gullible humans and the people offering the test pretending to be computers.
Level 5 cars will be found on the roads in all lower US states.
30% of the homeless will have been given free housing.
The US will be in a recession, and this will be REALLY pushing new welfare proposals.
There will be an economic boom in Africa.-- Voice, Mar 24 2018 //Have you found bacteria deep underground on you own planet ?// I think the current record is 1.3km.-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 24 2018 So in horizontal terms, less than the average distance between two branches of Starbucks ?
Not far, then.
// Aliens will be found living among us. They will be given amnesty //
"given" ? If we want anything, we will simply take it from you, along with anything else we want. Like spoons. Spoons are good. We like spoons.-- 8th of 7, Mar 24 2018 ... would like to bun an anno-- reensure, Mar 24 2018 //If we want anything, we will simply take it from you,//
I've told you about this before, [8th]. You've left me with no option. Sturton AND the Intercalary will be round tomorrow.-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 24 2018 See my last prediction: "Laughing is banned throughout the USA as an act against God" Seems like some here are practicing to become enthusiastic humour celebates in anticipation of the new laws. Instead of Americans can we not call them Amackerels, since they swallow any bait that's dangled in front of them?-- xenzag, Mar 24 2018 Wouldn't that be an act against Cod, then, mon amie?-- MaxwellBuchanan, Mar 24 2018 There's a time and a plaice for that sort of pun, and this isn't it.-- 8th of 7, Mar 24 2018 //The Universal Bill of Rights will be rescinded//
No, it won't be rescinded. It will be "updated", so as to be more "relevant" - much creepier.-- pertinax, Mar 24 2018 Or they'll say the concept of human rights is in itself oppressive to the Earth because it elevates the existence of man above that of other creatures.
"We, the stewards of Mother Earth declare that no human shall be worthy of any rights whatsoever until rights have been established and enforced for all the other creatures on Earth and that humans may be enslaved or killed as necessary to ensure the rights of every tree, plant, fish, bird or animal walking the Earth."-- doctorremulac3, Mar 24 2018 //I’ve got a radical prediction, and I’m serious about this//
Um.. you do realize you sort of left a bit out there don't you [Ian]?
All you've actually said so far is "I have a prediction, things will change" (albeit in a few more words than that) .. then you just kind of tail off.
"What" & "how" might have been good :P-- Skewed, Mar 24 2018 In b4 "triggered" (just in case) ;)-- Skewed, Mar 24 2018 I predict a significantly nonzero chance of Artificial General Intelligence. My real prediction is that AGI will be achieved by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) within 30 years with 100% probability (and I plan to post to /r/changemyview about that with more details this Friday), so let's say 15% probability of that happening within ten years.-- notexactly, Mar 25 2018 //Wouldn't that be an act against Cod, then, mon amie?// Every act has its plaice. Ha. There's nothing like a fishy pun.-- xenzag, Mar 25 2018 ///r/changemyview//
I will never again visit that hive of virtue signalling and censorship.
//100%//
There is a nonzero chance that the earth will be destroyed tomorrow. There is a nonzero chance AGI will not be developed by tomorrow. Therefore the odds of reaching AGI are <100%-- Voice, Mar 25 2018 I haven't seen anything like that there. It's one of my favorite subreddits, actually. IME, people there are more reasonable and open to considering other points of view than just about anywhere else I've been (which is, after all, its purpose).
Also, please define virtue signaling in your own words.-- notexactly, Mar 26 2018 //people there are more reasonable and open to considering other points of view than just about anywhere else I've been//
Huh?!!
A forum in reddit?
You sure about that?
That seems a little off the wall to me.
I can't figure out if you're using irony or are serious?
For the most part I find it's only marginally less ridiculous & toxic than the stuff you find in Yahoo Answers.
But I'll grant you my experience of the site is limited to one or two of the game subreddits with only (very) occasional toe dipping into others in lurk mode so it is conceivable I've only experienced some of the worse areas of the place.-- Skewed, Mar 26 2018 I'm talking about a specific subreddit, whose purpose is debate and consideration of other points of view. I grant that most of Reddit is often not like this.-- notexactly, Mar 26 2018 I predict that conversations will continue to run their course here, till the end of time.
At which time several brilliant bakers will disagree about the real meaning of "The End of Time", and all will be right with the world again.-- blissmiss, Mar 26 2018 // the real meaning of "The End of Time", //
Where's Prof. Hawking when you need him ... ? <sigh/>-- 8th of 7, Mar 26 2018 Just saw an executive from a helicopter company claim on CNBC that within 5 years, there will be EVTOL service to skyscrapers in multiple major cities including New York.-- theircompetitor, Mar 27 2018 There's nothing to stop it, other than consumer reluctance after the first few fatal crashes.
Probably no less safe per passenger-kilometer than any other form of rotary wing flight, and better than autogyros.-- 8th of 7, Mar 27 2018 As a business model it's worked very well for the USAF, so why not ?-- 8th of 7, Mar 28 2018 Hey man, gotta bomb somethin'.-- doctorremulac3, Mar 29 2018 (I have decided to delay my above-mentioned post, because I realized I need to type a lot more than I thought.)-- notexactly, Apr 01 2018 just reminded myself of this idea. OK so far. That female president bit may have to wait with Warren taking a bit of a hit in the polls.
[DrBob] Net Neutrality seems to have not eaten the Internet? How about that Starlink too, we may actually have ubiquitous satellite Internet within the decade from a completely new player.-- theircompetitor, Dec 31 2019 ... and ooh, won't national governments just love that ... an Internet they can't control at all ...
The consequences for your societies will be devastating; the collapse of nation-states as meaningful entities.
Our technology transfer programme is quite carefully thought out; we're going to make sure that all of those little cubesats arrive in their correct orbits without incident ... <gleeful sniggering/>-- 8th of 7, Dec 31 2019 Happy New Year halfbakery!
// Net Neutrality seems to have not eaten the Internet// Still another 9 years to go, tc & I hope that my prediction will not come to pass. From where I am sitting though, monetisation & censorship seem to be consistently nibbling away at its edges. The 'bakery is a beautiful little oasis amidst a slowly rising sea of corporatisation. I think the Arab Spring put the frighteners into every government on the planet & they are all exerting themselves to make sure that it doesn't happen again in their country. So I see your Starlink & raise you the Russian 'off-line' internet. :)-- DrBob, Jan 01 2020 The Russians, like every other sovereign government, are running flat out to stay still. Of course thy're terrified. They're trying to control technology as it is today; technology that is already obsolescent even as it is deployed generally.
What price a 56k dialup modem in 2020 ? Not so long ago that was "state of the art". Now, they're gathering dust in cupboards.
Existing socio-political systems cannot react fast enough to address emerging technogical developments. They're already dead, they just haven't stopped twitching yet. Regional governors will have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local systems in line ...-- 8th of 7, Jan 02 2020 [DrBob] to be sure on all of those, but the law that cable providers lobbied for did not stop the Internet, and with 5G and price competition among OTT streamers, the worry about download speed pricing will seem like a worrying about providing leather for buggy whips.
Isolating from the Internet while maintaining internal connectivity is surely self-defeating.-- theircompetitor, Jan 02 2020 [tc], care to rescind your prediction about Putin yet? Or do you think he'll be pushed out somehow?-- RayfordSteele, Mar 31 2020 //I haven't seen anything like that there. It's one of my favorite subreddits//
I was talking about Reddit as a whole-- Voice, Mar 31 2020 I think something will happen, [Ray]. Not rescinding yet...-- theircompetitor, Mar 31 2020 seems as good a time as any to toggle this to the top of the list. Some great annotations from MB and 8th :(-- theircompetitor, Dec 25 2021 I claim prophet-status with this:
Just let our healthcare system continue such as it is and a slightly more aggressive variant of a cold should do the trick. — RayfordSteele, Mar 24 2018 [edit, delete]-- RayfordSteele, Dec 25 2021 [RayfordSteele]; prophet-status accepted. All will bow before you.-- neutrinos_shadow, Dec 25 2021 //All will bow before you// It's spelled with one el, and I don't think he plays the fiddle.
[MB]'s //6) The 5-year survival rate for 95% of cancer types will be above 75%// was briefly true here in Canuckistan. Sadly, personnel loss in our medical system, labs closures, and glitches with the supply chains that supply the whole show are interfering with the success rate.
[tc]'s //6. Sports betting and online gambling will be legal throughout the US// is also true, even here in Canadanada. When your address is in the 'NetSpace, ALL the things are possible.
[doc]'s //6- The Halfbakery will be sold to Facebook// can never come true*, due to the Law of Paradox. If we are sold, we'll all disappear**, thus removing the object which was sold. However, the same law predicts that [jutta] is already very rich from this prediction, despite HB not being able to be sold. Probably an elderly aunt left her a sizeable fortune in an as-yet-undiscovered teapot.
*unless it does
**difficult to herd, as with c@ts-- Sgt Teacup, Dec 25 2021 Thank you [n s]. I shall now speak in incomprehensibly vague generalities from here on out. Incidentally, you should look into getting that thing taken care of you were thinking about last week before it gets out of hand.-- RayfordSteele, Dec 26 2021 Putin gone before 2028 was my #1 prediction. Hope springs eternal-- theircompetitor, Mar 14 2022 Looks like I was way too optimistic about l5 cars. Well now I'm even more depressed.-- Voice, Mar 14 2022 [+] to [RayfordSteele] for //a slightly more aggressive variant of a cold should do the trick//-- pocmloc, Jun 15 2022 Interesting -- so AI, definitely, but total fail on my top 2. Doing a bit better lower in the list -- still 4 years to go-- theircompetitor, May 21 2024 random, halfbakery