I think I get it -- there's a crisis or something going on with the US government running out of credit.
I keep hearing that we borrow 40% of every dollar spent.
I am also hearing that the deadline is somewhat fuzzy given that money is coming in to the Treasure every day.
The short term solution seems obvious. We don't need to raise anything. Instead, everyone who really, really wants an agreement -- which appears to be about half the country, perhaps more -- , can take matters into their own hands by sending in their estimated taxes through the end of the year.
Since we're at about the halfway point of the year, if all those people send in their entire tax receipts now, it will fill in the 40% without any need to borrow more money.
Perhaps Uncle Sam would even be willing to throw in a bit of a discount for those that send taxes early?
This obviously will not work indefinitely, but should create a nice 5, 6 months buffer.-- theircompetitor, Jul 29 2011 Dr. Strangelove http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0057012/How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb ... [8th of 7, Jul 29 2011] In England's green and pleasant land. http://en.wikipedia..._Locomotive_Firemen [mouseposture, Jul 31 2011] Computer analysis of cancer tumors http://www.popsci.c...ancer-better-doctor [theircompetitor, Nov 10 2011] Google's Nevada license http://www.theregis...license_google_car/ [theircompetitor, May 09 2012] The day the drug dealers in Mexico or the oligarchs in Russia or the bankers in Singapore, or the oilmen in Saudi have an option other than the dollar is the day I will start worrying.
Until then, I've learned to love the debt bomb-- theircompetitor, Jul 29 2011 But have you stopped worrying ?
<link>-- 8th of 7, Jul 29 2011 Unnecessary link; those who get the joke, get the joke. Those who do not are horrible human beings.-- Alterother, Jul 29 2011 Ahhhhhhhhhhh .......
<gentle snores>
// horrible human beings //
Tautology. There's any other type ?-- 8th of 7, Jul 29 2011 After a week in a warm environment, even dead humans get pretty yucky.-- 8th of 7, Jul 29 2011 There are approximately 5M professional drivers in the United States -- that's bus, truck, taxi drivers, not Nascar circuit drivers
Figure another ten to twenty years until self driving cars are routine.
Then look at current structural unemployment and what's been happening to it.
Any forced changes in the retirement age are a pimple on a horses ass in terms of the dislocations that are coming -- the growth of structural unemployment we've seen will be dwarfed by the coming years.
The social fight worth having is not over safety nets, but in changing education-- theircompetitor, Jul 30 2011 I think self-driving cars are a little further away than most people beleive . Yes, I know they already exist in the development phase, and there are 'self-parking' cars on the market, but I mean widespread use. It may take a country boy's perspective to see this (a well-traveled country boy), but there are a lot more variables to driving rural roads than driving in the city. In terms of square mileage made accessible by road, the US and Canada's roads are mostly rural.-- Alterother, Jul 30 2011 I was thinking "For rural roads, sure, but it'll take more than a couple of decades to replace the New York or London cabbie."
Consider rural roads in the American West. Perfectly straight from horizon to horizon, and hardly a tree or another vehicle to collide with. There's a *reason* Nevada was first to legalize autonomous vehicles.
[theircompetitor] Excellent point. But shirly that's nothing new? Why is the problem more acute in the coming years than it has been in the past century?-- mouseposture, Jul 30 2011 Yet consider the rural roads in the American East, of which there are more; twisting, winding, often lined by trees and great bloody rocks, and often subject to the whims of Teleporting Deer.-- Alterother, Jul 30 2011 I'll believe in autonomous cars after we start getting autonomous airplanes.-- ye_river_xiv, Jul 31 2011 // I'll believe in autonomous cars after we start getting autonomous airplanes.//
<...considers mentioning UAV's, but then thinks better of it...>-- not_morrison_rm, Jul 31 2011 [mouseposture] I guess my point is that the structural issues facing the economy from its transformation are much larger than even the structural issues facing the deficit, e.g. self- driving cars are a bigger impact on the employment of drivers than the impact of the housing bubble on construction workers.
Similarly, the increasing longevity of the baby boomers created structural problems within Social Security and Medicare, but we actually have no idea how the transformation of medicine will impact longevity and health level of seniors. My bet is that as personalized genetic medicine takes off, no amount of retirement age adjustment would be able to keep up.
State planners love to talk high speed trains when a laptop with Google Plus already gives you free, immersive videoconferencing -- other than human communication, not even clear to me why one goes to the office now, much less in 20 years.
The venture economy is both showing signs of a bubble but is also showing signs of an upcoming surge similar to the surge of the 90s.
And I'm not even going to bring up the upcoming Singularity :)
So, worrying about actuarial tables looking out 30 years seems pretty silly to me.-- theircompetitor, Jul 31 2011 [theircompetitor] there have been self-driving light-rail vehicles for decades, but each still requires a human fail-safe for safety concerns. We'll never see a self-driving bus full of passengers as something commonplace in our lifetimes.-- rcarty, Jul 31 2011 My guess is that a self-driving bus would be safer for passengers.
And as to light rail, my guess would be that those drivers are driven by union concerns-- theircompetitor, Jul 31 2011 [theircompetitor] like I said, excellent point. But planners are paid to plan, and so they build models containing only the known unknowns. Like the subprime debacle, really. If you were World Dictator, would you A) abandon the attempt to plan ahead, or B) fire the actuaries and hire futurists instead?
For unrelated reasons, I've been reading about Extended Kalman Filters, and y'know, a simplified model that fails beyond a short time horizon, is surprisingly accurate in the longer term if it's continuously updated from new data.-- mouseposture, Jul 31 2011 Don't mention Railroad Unions! If anybody mentions Railroad Unions, [The Alterother] will put a bag over his head, and then we all have to stand in the tea chest and sing "Jerusalem!"-- Alterother, Jul 31 2011 //still requires a human fail-safe// <link>-- mouseposture, Jul 31 2011 [mouseposture], I make my living by convincing VCs to believe in hockey stick plans :)
So yes, I would go for the futurists.
As silly as those old PopSci posters look, they're not wrong in the sense of wonder that the current world would have invoked in those that saw those posters, then-- theircompetitor, Jul 31 2011 The link talks about computer analysis of cancer cell images starting to beat human radiologist readings. Radiology jobs already shift outside of western markets to some extent to save money.
No amount of "protectionist" policy can keep any industry or job type safe long term. The focus has to be on creating new job types and new industries, and a population that thrives on change rather than on stability. It's a bitch when it affects you, but pretending that it can be handled by putting your head in the sand is the surest way to create more Detroit style failures.-- theircompetitor, Nov 10 2011 The above mentioned license has been granted to Google in Nevada (see link)-- theircompetitor, May 09 2012 /if all those people send in their entire tax receipts now/
I wonder if one could use casino-like odds to figure out how to do this. For example: guess for the year and send in now. If you overpay you will get 85% of it back after the first $200, which Unca Sam keeps. If you underpay same thing in reverse.-- bungston, May 09 2012 // the dislocations that are coming -- the growth of structural unemployment we've seen will be dwarfed by the coming years.//.
I doubt that there can be a structural change as big as we've already seen over the past decades with 10s or even 100s of millions of women entering the workforce when in prior eras it "wasn't the done thing". I know unemployment is a serious issue in many parts of the world right now, but in Australia at the moment the unemployment rate is just barely above 5%, with twice as many citizens in the job market than there would have been predicted in the 1950s or 60s.-- AusCan531, May 09 2012 Fair point on the fair sex, AusCan531.-- theircompetitor, May 09 2012 Ummm... I'm confused. How is this idea different from the way things are now? My income taxes are regularly withheld from my paycheck, and sent on to the government (I believe quarterly). When you file your taxes for the year, you're really just resolving accounts, and you either have to pay an additional amount or get a refund for the difference between your withheld amount (based on income projection for the year) and your actual tax liability. Failing to accurately adjust your withholdings such that they grossly differ from your actual tax bill can actually subject you to penalties, and theoretically is punishable as a criminal offense.-- ytk, May 09 2012 >self-driving cars are a little further away than most people beleive
Yes, they do tend to keep a bigger safety gap than most human drivers.-- not_morrison_rm, May 09 2012 random, halfbakery